WIN+6.2%+1.1R|SHORTLow Conviction|$238.00$223.228d 12h

FSLR

NASDAQBEARISH
Swing · Multi-day confirmation1 Model · Analysis Snapshot: Feb 5, 2026, 3:01 AM · Valid for ~12h
CompletedRe-run
BEARISH
Analysis by Grok-4· 7% edge — bear case stronger
Stop$252.00
Entry$238.00
Target$214.00
LowConditionalHigh
BEAR (1)
BULL (0)
0%0%
Bear Case(1 model)
GROK-40%

The technical indicators show a strong bearish signal with RSI below 50 at 46.45 and SMA20 below SMA50, confirming downward pressure. The market regime is transitioning from bull to bear with growth underperformance in tech sectors (QQQ -1.76%), credit spreads widening, and USD strength, which could negatively impact high-beta stocks like FSLR in the solar industry. Volume is below average at 0.87x, failing to confirm any upside, and the price is -17% from its 52-week high, suggesting further downside towards support at 214 amid a risk-off environment.

Bull Case(1 model)
GROK-40%

Despite the bearish signals, FSLR has shown resilience with a price position 11.2% above support at 214 and only 5.3% below resistance at 251.36. The RSI is rising from 46.45, indicating potential momentum buildup, and recent earnings have beaten estimates, such as the January 16 beat of 4.67 vs 4.47. In a sideways trend, a breakout above resistance could propel prices higher, supported by the company's position in the growing solar energy sector.

What Would Invalidate
  • Close above resistance at 251.36
Grok-4Balanced
Analysis Outcome
SHORT
1.71R·75% confidence
Entry
$238.00
Target
$214.00
Stop
$252.00

The technical indicators show a strong bearish signal with RSI below 50 at 46.45 and SMA20 below SMA50, confirming downward pressure. The market regime is transitioning from bull to bear with growth underperformance in tech sectors (QQQ -1.76%), credit spreads widening, and USD strength, which could negatively impact high-beta stocks like FSLR in the solar industry. Volume is below average at 0.87x, failing to confirm any upside, and the price is -17% from its 52-week high, suggesting further downside towards support at 214 amid a risk-off environment.

Bull/Bear CompetitionWinner: BEAR
Bear 75%Δ 7%Bull 68%
Bear Case

The technical indicators show a strong bearish signal with RSI below 50 at 46.45 and SMA20 below SMA50, confirming downward pressure. The market regime is transitioning from bull to bear with growth underperformance in tech sectors (QQQ -1.76%), credit spreads widening, and USD strength, which could negatively impact high-beta stocks like FSLR in the solar industry. Volume is below average at 0.87x, failing to confirm any upside, and the price is -17% from its 52-week high, suggesting further downside towards support at 214 amid a risk-off environment.

Bull Case

First Solar is well-positioned in the growing renewable energy sector, with its focus on efficient thin-film solar panels driving long-term demand amid global sustainability efforts. Recent earnings show consistent EPS beats, such as the latest quarter's 4.67 vs. estimate of 4.47, indicating strong operational performance and potential for upward revisions. Technically, RSI is rising towards neutral levels, price is holding above key SMAs and support at 214, with a sideways trend that could resolve upwards in a risk-on environment supported by VIX contango.

Analysis Notes

Thesis Competition: BEAR case won (75% vs 68%).

3m 01s18 tools
FSLR Analysis | TradeHorde