IREN presents a compelling LONG opportunity driven by a transformational business pivot and massive AI contract. The company just secured a **$9.7 billion AI cloud contract with Microsoft**, targeting
IREN is releasing Q2 FY26 earnings TODAY (Feb 5, 2026) after market close with analysts expecting a LOSS of -$0.07 EPS and revenue decline to $229.64M from $240.3M prior quarter. The previous quarter
Models see balanced risk with no clear catalyst to break the stalemate
Bull and bear cases balanced — no clear edge
IREN presents a compelling LONG opportunity driven by a transformational business pivot and massive AI contract. The company just secured a **$9.7 billion AI cloud contract with Microsoft**, targeting $3.4B annualized revenue by end of FY2026—a game-changing shift from low-margin Bitcoin mining to high-margin AI infrastructure (85% EBITDA margins). Recent earnings showed dramatic improvement with net income swinging from -$51.7M to +$384.6M, and December earnings crushed estimates (0.45 actual vs 0.27 estimate, +66.67% surprise). H.C. Wainwright issued a rare double upgrade from Sell to Buy with an $80 price target, and analyst consensus is Buy with median target of $70. Technically, the stock is sitting just above critical support at $43.91 with 1.4x average volume, trading at the lower end of its value area ($41.82-$57.65) and down 41.5% from 52-week highs—offering an attractive entry for a swing trade targeting the $63 resistance level. The risk-reward setup is favorable at 5.1:1 with earnings catalyst tonight potentially driving upside momentum.
IREN is releasing Q2 FY26 earnings TODAY (Feb 5, 2026) after market close with analysts expecting a LOSS of -$0.07 EPS and revenue decline to $229.64M from $240.3M prior quarter. The previous quarter (Nov 2025) saw a catastrophic 92.86% earnings miss (EPS $0.01 vs $0.14 estimate), creating pattern risk for another disappointment. Technically, price is down 41.5% from 52-week high at $76.87, trading 18.8% below both SMA20 and SMA50 with strong bearish signals (RSI 42.71, falling momentum). The macro regime is transitioning bull-to-bear with 85% confidence, showing growth underperformance (QQQ -1.76%), credit spread widening, and USD strength—all headwinds for high-beta unprofitable growth names. Price is just 2.3% above support at $43.91 with high volatility (ATR 12.62% of price), making it vulnerable to an earnings-driven breakdown. Volume profile shows current price below all high-volume nodes ($51-54 range), indicating weak structural support.
Thesis Competition CONTESTED: BULL case (72%) vs BEAR case (72%) - confidence delta (0%) below threshold. Trade skipped due to insufficient conviction.