META

NASDAQLEAN BEARISH
Swing · Multi-day confirmation4 Models · Analysis Snapshot: Feb 13, 2026, 2:09 PM · Valid for ~12h
CompletedRe-run
LEAN BEARISH
4 models· Only 75% voted — not enough for consensus
1 Long2 Short1 Contested
Stop$665.00–$668.40
Entry$649.81–$650.00
Target$596.00–$618.00
LowConditionalHigh
Key Disagreements
  • Split opinion: 1 model(s) LONG vs 2 model(s) SHORT
  • Claude-Haiku-4.5(76% LONG): "META is deeply oversold (RSI 39.5) at support ($645.28) with unanimous analyst consensus (24/24 BUY, $868 target = +33.5% upside). Recent earnings prove AI monetization is delivering real profits: Q4 revenue $59.89B (+24% YoY), EPS $1.87 vs $1.61 estimate (+16% surprise), with consistent outperformance across Q2-Q4. Despite margin compression from $115-135B capex (AI infrastructure build), operating margins remain strong at 41% and profit margin at 30%. Macro regime supports risk-on with complacent VIX (0.529) and broadening breadth (+1.06%), creating a classic oversold bounce setup with 4.1:1 reward-to-risk to resistance at $732."
BEAR (2)
BULL (1)
0%1 skip0%
Bear Case(3 models)
GPT-4o0%

META's stock is currently facing a bearish technical structure with the RSI below 50 and a downward trajectory in momentum indicators. The stock is trading below its 20 day and 50 day moving averages, indicating potential further downside. Additionally, the macroeconomic environment suggests caution, with broader market trends showing bearish signals and credit stress, which could adversely affect META's performance, especially considering its significant capital expenditure plans.

DeepSeek-R10%

Technical breakdown underway with price (649.81) testing critical support (645.28) amid bearish momentum (RSI 39.5 falling, MACD -2.914). Market regime shows credit stress (-0.73% 5d) and flight to safety (Yen strength). Volume profile shows weak defense at current levels with nearest high-volume node at 668.40 (3% above price). ATR (3.47%) suggests 22.5pt stop buffer aligns with swing trade parameters.

Gemini-3-Flash

META is currently exhibiting a 'strong bearish' technical profile, trading below its 20-day and 50-day SMAs with a falling RSI of 39.5, indicating accelerating downward momentum. The price has broken

Bull Case(2 models)
Claude-Haiku-4.50%

META is deeply oversold (RSI 39.5) at support ($645.28) with unanimous analyst consensus (24/24 BUY, $868 target = +33.5% upside). Recent earnings prove AI monetization is delivering real profits: Q4 revenue $59.89B (+24% YoY), EPS $1.87 vs $1.61 estimate (+16% surprise), with consistent outperformance across Q2-Q4. Despite margin compression from $115-135B capex (AI infrastructure build), operating margins remain strong at 41% and profit margin at 30%. Macro regime supports risk-on with complacent VIX (0.529) and broadening breadth (+1.06%), creating a classic oversold bounce setup with 4.1:1 reward-to-risk to resistance at $732.

Gemini-3-Flash

META is currently testing a major technical support level at $645.28, coinciding with an RSI near oversold territory (39.5) and a significant high-volume node ( $654- $661) that suggests strong instit

What Would Invalidate
  • If META's stock closes above $670, it would indicate a break above current resistance levels, invalidating the bearish thesis.
  • Close below $630 (below support level) would invalidate the bounce thesis. Additionally, if next earnings (Q1 2026) misses estimates by >5% or provides guidance below $800 analyst target, the bullish thesis breaks. Macro invalidation: VIX spike above 25 or SPY close below 200-day MA would suggest regime shift away from risk-on support.
  • Daily close above 668.40 (volume POC)
Claude Haiku 4.5Fast
Analysis Outcome
LONGLEANING
4.10R·76% confidence
Entry
$650.00
Target
$732.00
Stop
$630.00

META is deeply oversold (RSI 39.5) at support ($645.28) with unanimous analyst consensus (24/24 BUY, $868 target = +33.5% upside). Recent earnings prove AI monetization is delivering real profits: Q4 revenue $59.89B (+24% YoY), EPS $1.87 vs $1.61 estimate (+16% surprise), with consistent outperformance across Q2-Q4. Despite margin compression from $115-135B capex (AI infrastructure build), operating margins remain strong at 41% and profit margin at 30%. Macro regime supports risk-on with complacent VIX (0.529) and broadening breadth (+1.06%), creating a classic oversold bounce setup with 4.1:1 reward-to-risk to resistance at $732.

Bull/Bear CompetitionWinner: BULL
Bull 76%Δ 4%Bear 72%
Bull Case

META is deeply oversold (RSI 39.5) at support ($645.28) with unanimous analyst consensus (24/24 BUY, $868 target = +33.5% upside). Recent earnings prove AI monetization is delivering real profits: Q4 revenue $59.89B (+24% YoY), EPS $1.87 vs $1.61 estimate (+16% surprise), with consistent outperformance across Q2-Q4. Despite margin compression from $115-135B capex (AI infrastructure build), operating margins remain strong at 41% and profit margin at 30%. Macro regime supports risk-on with complacent VIX (0.529) and broadening breadth (+1.06%), creating a classic oversold bounce setup with 4.1:1 reward-to-risk to resistance at $732.

Bear Case
Analysis Notes

Thesis Competition: BULL case won (76% vs 72%).

1m 41s21 tools
GPT-4oFast
Analysis Outcome
SHORTLEANING
3.54R·75% confidence
Entry
$649.81
Target
$596.00
Stop
$665.00

META's stock is currently facing a bearish technical structure with the RSI below 50 and a downward trajectory in momentum indicators. The stock is trading below its 20 day and 50 day moving averages, indicating potential further downside. Additionally, the macroeconomic environment suggests caution, with broader market trends showing bearish signals and credit stress, which could adversely affect META's performance, especially considering its significant capital expenditure plans.

Bull/Bear CompetitionWinner: BEAR
Bear 75%Δ 5%Bull 70%
Bear Case

META's stock is currently facing a bearish technical structure with the RSI below 50 and a downward trajectory in momentum indicators. The stock is trading below its 20 day and 50 day moving averages, indicating potential further downside. Additionally, the macroeconomic environment suggests caution, with broader market trends showing bearish signals and credit stress, which could adversely affect META's performance, especially considering its significant capital expenditure plans.

Bull Case

Meta Platforms has recently reported strong financial performance, with a significant earnings beat and 24 year over year revenue growth. The company's strategic pivot to A I infrastructure, including substantial investment sinAI compute infrastructure and datacenter s, positions it for future growth. Analysts maintain a bullish outlook with a mean price target of $868, indicating potential upside of approximately 20 from current levels.

Analysis Notes

Thesis Competition: BEAR case won (75% vs 70%).

43s17 tools
Gemini 3 FlashFast
Analysis Outcome
NO TRADE0% edge
BULL
72%
BEAR
72%

Bull and bear cases balanced — no clear edge

Bull/Bear CompetitionBALANCED
Bull 72%Δ 0%Bear 72%
Bull Case

META is currently testing a major technical support level at $645.28, coinciding with an RSI near oversold territory (39.5) and a significant high-volume node ( $654- $661) that suggests strong institutional accumulation. Fundamentally, the company remains a cash-flow powerhouse with a 30% profit margin and a forward P/E of 18.2x, which is attractive given its 24% YoY revenue growth and strategic pivot toward 'Meta Compute' infrastructure. The consensus analyst target of $847.40 provides a massive 30% upside cushion, and the recent 18% pullback from highs offers a high-probability entry point for a mean-reversion swing trade.

Bear Case

META is currently exhibiting a 'strong bearish' technical profile, trading below its 20-day and 50-day SMAs with a falling RSI of 39.5, indicating accelerating downward momentum. The price has broken below the Point of Control (POC) at $668.40 and is currently testing critical support at $645.28; a failure here opens the door to the Value Area Low near $618. Furthermore, the broader market regime shows signs of 'Credit Stress' and a 'Flight to Safety' in the Yen, suggesting a macro environment where high-beta tech stocks like META are prone to aggressive de-risking.

Analysis Notes

Thesis Competition CONTESTED: BULL case (72%) vs BEAR case (72%) - confidence delta (0%) below threshold. Trade skipped due to insufficient conviction.

47s23 tools
DeepSeek R1Deep
Analysis Outcome
SHORTLEANING
1.74R·70% confidence
Entry
$650.00
Target
$618.00
Stop
$668.40

Technical breakdown underway with price (649.81) testing critical support (645.28) amid bearish momentum (RSI 39.5 falling, MACD -2.914). Market regime shows credit stress (-0.73% 5d) and flight to safety (Yen strength). Volume profile shows weak defense at current levels with nearest high-volume node at 668.40 (3% above price). ATR (3.47%) suggests 22.5pt stop buffer aligns with swing trade parameters.

Bull/Bear CompetitionWinner: BEAR
Bear 70%Δ 5%Bull 65%
Bear Case

Technical breakdown underway with price (649.81) testing critical support (645.28) amid bearish momentum (RSI 39.5 falling, MACD -2.914). Market regime shows credit stress (-0.73% 5d) and flight to safety (Yen strength). Volume profile shows weak defense at current levels with nearest high-volume node at 668.40 (3% above price). ATR (3.47%) suggests 22.5pt stop buffer aligns with swing trade parameters.

Bull Case

META presents a compelling long opportunity as it tests key technical support at $645 with oversold RSI (39.5), creating favorable risk-reward. Fundamentally, the company maintains exceptional profitability (30% net margins) and consistent earnings beats (8.7-26% surprises) while trading at reasonable forward P/E of 18.2. Its dominant digital advertising position and growing Reality Labs segment provide structural advantages.

Analysis Notes

Thesis Competition: BEAR case won (70% vs 65%).

6m 55s18 tools
META Analysis | TradeHorde