LOSS-1.9%-1.0R|LONGHigh Conviction|$1001.50$982.204d 3h

COST

NASDAQBULLISH CONSENSUS
All Horizons · Multi-timeframe synthesis3 Models · Analysis Snapshot: Feb 6, 2026, 9:49 PM · Valid for ~48h
CompletedRe-run
BULLISH CONSENSUSHigh Conviction
3 models· Strong agreement*
3 Long0 Short
Target$1030–$1080
Entry$1001–$1002
Stop$960.00–$982.20
LowConditionalHigh
BULL (3)
BEAR (0)
0%0%
Bull Case(3 models)
DeepSeek-R10%

COST is poised for breakout above 1001 resistance with bullish RSI momentum and volume profile confirmation. StrongROE(30. 3 and consistent earnings beats, combined with supportive bull market regime 95 confidence create favorable setup. The stock trades above key moving averages with minimal volume resistance until 1078.

Gemini-3-Pro0%

Costco is poised for a breakout above the psychological $1,000 level, driven by strong momentum (RSI 65 rising) and a 'Strong Bull' market regime that favors high-quality leaders. The price is holding well above the high-volume node at $960 and the SMA20/50 support confluence (~$971), creating a solid technical floor. Fundamentally, the recent membership fee hike and 6.2% comp sales growth provide a robust tailwind, while the upcoming March earnings act as a catalyst for a pre-earnings run-up toward the all-time high of $1,078.

Claude-Opus-4.50%

COST is testing resistance at $1001.27 with strong momentum (RSI 65.56 rising) in a highly supportive macro environment - the market regime is "strong_bull" with 95% confidence, VIX in deep contango, and credit conditions tight. The stock has rallied +13% YTD, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 1.5% gain, demonstrating relative strength. Fundamentally, Costco is executing exceptionally well with 6.2% adjusted comparable sales growth, 8.2% total net sales growth to $66B, and membership fee income surging 14% YoY following a 2025 price increase. The defensive consumer staples nature of Costco makes it an ideal "risk-on with protection" play - it benefits from the current reflationary environment while offering downside resilience. A breakout above the $1001.27 resistance opens a path to the 52-week high at $1078.23 (7.7% upside), supported by low volume nodes above current price ($997.55) suggesting minimal resistance to a move higher.

Bear Case(3 models)
DeepSeek-R10%

Highvaluation(P/E52. 9)couldlimitupside, while low volume resistance test risks reversal. Consumer defensive sector may under perform in extended bull markets, and failure at 1001 resistance could trigger profit taking toward 975 volume node.

Gemini-3-Pro0%

Despite the bullish momentum, COST trades at a premium valuation (P/E > 52), leaving little margin for error. The price is currently testing key resistance at $1,001 near the upper Bollinger Band; a rejection here could trigger a mean-reversion pullback toward the SMA20/50 confluence at $970. Additionally, if the 'risk-on' rotation aggressively shifts back to pure tech/AI beta, defensive staples like Costco could see capital outflows.

Claude-Opus-4.50%

COST trades at a premium valuation with a P/E of 52.9x and PEG ratio of 4.66, which "leaves essentially no room for error" according to market commentary. The stock is testing major resistance at $1001.27 with relatively low volume (only 4% of average), which could indicate a lack of conviction in the breakout attempt. The SMA20 is below SMA50 which is technically bearish, and a failed breakout here could see price retreat to the Point of Control at $960 or even the value area low at $863.66. Additionally, while the macro environment is risk-on, the extreme complacency indicated by VIX contango historically precedes sharp corrections.

What Would Invalidate
  • Daily close below $976.50 volume support
  • Close below the $960 volume shelf and SMA support would invalidate the immediate bullish breakout thesis.
  • Daily close below the 20-day SMA at $971 would invalidate the bullish breakout thesis and suggest the resistance test has failed.
DeepSeek R1DeepALIGNED
Analysis Outcome
LONG
1.84R·95% confidence
Entry
$1001.50
Target
$1078.00
Stop
$960.00

COST is poised for breakout above $1001 resistance with bullish RSI momentum and volume profile confirmation. Strong ROE (30.3%) and consistent earnings beats, combined with supportive bull market regime (95 confidence) create favorable setup. The stock trades above key moving averages with minimal volume resistance until $1078.

Across timeframes
DAY
LONG
72% · decided
SWING
LONG
75% · decided
POSITION
LONG
82% · decided
Bull/Bear CompetitionWinner: BULL
Bull 72%Δ 7%Bear 65%
Bull Case

COST is testing resistance at 1001. 27 with bullish RSI momentum 65. 56)abovekeySMAs. The price trades above value area high 990. 11 with minimal overhead resistance, while the strong bull market regime 95 confidence and defensive sector positioning provide tailwinds. A breakout could trigger momentum buying toward the 52 week high zone.

Bear Case

COST is testing major resistance at $1001.27 on extremely low volume (4% of average), signaling weak breakout conviction. RSI approaching overbought territory near all-time highs with stretched valuation. Recent earnings miss and transportation sector weakness suggest consumer spending headwinds.

Analysis Notes

Thesis Competition: BULL case won (72% vs 65%).

9m 42s63 tools$
Gemini 3 ProDeepALIGNED
Analysis Outcome
LONG
2.42R·95% confidence
Entry
$1001.50
Target
$1080.00
Stop
$969.00

Costco is poised for a breakout above the psychological $1,000 level, driven by strong momentum (RSI 65 rising) and a 'Strong Bull' market regime that favors high-quality leaders. The price is holding well above the high-volume node at $960 and the SMA20/50 support confluence (~$971), creating a solid technical floor. Fundamentally, the recent membership fee hike and 6.2% comp sales growth provide a robust tailwind, while the upcoming March earnings act as a catalyst for a pre-earnings run-up toward the all-time high of $1,078.

Across timeframes
DAY
LONG
75% · decided
SWING
LONG
78% · decided
POSITION
LONG
72% · decided
Bull/Bear CompetitionWinner: BULL
Bull 75%Δ 10%Bear 65%
Bull Case

COST has triggered a significant structural breakout by trading above its Volume Profile Value Area High ($990.11), entering a 'price discovery' phase above the psychological $1000 level. Technical momentum is robust with the RSI rising (65) but not yet overbought, and price holding firmly above the SMA20/50 ($971). This aligns with the 'Strong Bull' macro regime and the current market rotation into high-quality defensive compounders, supporting a run toward 52-week highs.

Bear Case

COST is exhibiting classic signs of technical exhaustion and valuation excess at the psychological $1,000 level. Fundamentally, the stock is trading at an exorbitant 53x P/E and 4.6 PEG ratio, priced for perfection despite slowing consumer discretionary trends. Technically, price is trading within a Low Volume Node (LVN) above the Value Area High ($990); a failure to sustain this breakout typically triggers a rapid mean reversion to the Point of Control (POC) at $960. The 30-minute RSI is diverging, and the risk-reward for a mean reversion trade is favorable as the stock is extended +3% above its key moving averages.

Analysis Notes

Thesis Competition: BULL case won (75% vs 65%).

2m 45s83 tools$
Claude Opus 4.5DeepALIGNED
Analysis Outcome
LONG
1.56R·95% confidence
Entry
$1000.84
Target
$1030.00
Stop
$982.20

COST is testing resistance at $1001.27 with strong momentum (RSI 65.56 rising) in a highly supportive macro environment - the market regime is "strong_bull" with 95% confidence, VIX in deep contango, and credit conditions tight. The stock has rallied +13% YTD, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 1.5% gain, demonstrating relative strength. Fundamentally, Costco is executing exceptionally well with 6.2% adjusted comparable sales growth, 8.2% total net sales growth to $66B, and membership fee income surging 14% YoY following a 2025 price increase. The defensive consumer staples nature of Costco makes it an ideal "risk-on with protection" play - it benefits from the current reflationary environment while offering downside resilience. A breakout above the $1001.27 resistance opens a path to the 52-week high at $1078.23 (7.7% upside), supported by low volume nodes above current price ($997.55) suggesting minimal resistance to a move higher.

Across timeframes
DAY
LONG
72% · decided
SWING
LONG
72% · decided
POSITION
LONG
72% · decided
Bull/Bear CompetitionWinner: BULL
Bull 72%Δ 14%Bear 58%
Bull Case

COST is testing resistance at $1001.27 with a bullish technical signal (65% strength) and rising RSI at 65.94, indicating strong upward momentum. The stock is up +13% YTD significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 1.5% gain, with exceptional fundamentals including 6.2% comparable sales growth and 14% YoY membership fee revenue increase. The market regime is "strong_bull" with 95% confidence and low risk level - VIX in deep contango signals extreme complacency supporting risk-on positioning. Price is currently at a low volume node ($997.55), which typically offers less resistance to price movement, creating ideal conditions for a breakout above the $1001.27 resistance toward the upper Bollinger Band at $1003.14 and beyond. Costco's defensive Consumer Defensive sector positioning makes it attractive during market rotations away from tech, while its strong operational execution (30.3% ROE) and digital momentum provide fundamental support for continued appreciation.

Bear Case

COST is trading at extreme valuation levels with a P/E of 52.9, PEG ratio of 4.66, and forward P/E of 44.5 - leaving virtually no margin for error. The stock is testing key resistance at $1001.27 after a 13% YTD run, sitting 7.2% below its 52-week high of $1078. Current price ($1000.84) is in a low-volume node (19.9% relative volume) with the volume Point of Control at $960.36 - suggesting price could rapidly retrace to this high-volume node if resistance holds. The SMA20 < SMA50 indicates underlying bearish structure despite recent rally, and volume is extremely weak at just 4% of average. The most recent earnings (January 2026) showed a -10.53% EPS miss, signaling potential cracks in the execution story.

Analysis Notes

Thesis Competition: BULL case won (72% vs 58%).

1m 29s95 tools$
COST Analysis | TradeHorde