NEM presents a compelling LONG opportunity driven by a gold supercycle with prices reaching record highs near $4,300/oz, providing massive revenue tailwinds. The company has delivered exceptional operational improvements post-Newcrest acquisition with aggressive cost-cutting driving free cash flow step-change, while maintaining a pristine balance sheet with near-zero net debt and $9.6B liquidity. Technically, NEM is trading at a high-volume node ($115.34) near the Point of Control ($113.48), showing strong institutional accumulation, with RSI rising at 48.59 suggesting momentum is building. The stock has surged 135-174% over the past year yet remains undervalued at a forward P/E of 14.1x and PEG of 0.30x, with 19 of 23 analysts rating it Buy/Strong Buy and price targets averaging $112-114 with upside targets to $133-160.
Despite the bearish signals, NEM could see upward movement if gold prices rebound due to geopolitical tensions or inflation concerns, as it's a major gold miner. Technicals show RSI rising, which might indicate a potential bounce from oversold levels near support. Additionally, the sideways market regime could allow for mean reversion higher if broader markets stabilize.
Technically, NEM is failing to reclaim key moving averages with price below the 4h SMA20/50 (~$118.8) and RSI still sub-50, keeping momentum tilted bearish despite a recent bounce. The stock is also ~
NEM exhibits strong bearish technical signals, including RSI below 50 and price trading below both SMA20 and SMA50, confirming downside momentum in a sideways trend. The recent earnings miss on November 28, 2025, with EPS of 2.57 versus estimate of 2.94 (-12.59% surprise), highlights weakening fundamentals in the gold mining sector amid potential softening demand or rising costs. Volume is below average, failing to confirm any bullish recovery, and the high debt-to-equity ratio of 16.914 suggests vulnerability to interest rate pressures or operational challenges, supporting further price decline towards support levels.
Balanced: bull (63%) and bear (64%) are closely matched (edge score: 1%)
Technically, NEM is trading below its key short-term moving averages (price ~$115.32 vs SMA20/50 ~$118.77) with RSI still sub-50, which keeps the near-term bias bearish and makes rallies into $118.8–$120.9 a favorable fade area. Volume is below average (~0.82x), implying the recent push higher lacks strong participation; combined with a sideways regime, the higher-probability day-trade is mean reversion back toward the lower Bollinger band (~$105.30) and/or a breakdown test of support (~$108.05). Volume profile shows heavy supply/acceptance around $111–$115 (HVNs), so if price loses that node, it can move faster into the value-area low (~$100.46) through thinner liquidity below.
NEM is holding above a well-defined 30min support zone (~$108) and is trading near the volume profile point of control (~$113.5), which often acts as a “fair value” area where bounces can develop; RSI is rising toward 50, suggesting selling pressure is easing. With a sideways/medium-risk market regime, mean-reversion setups from support tend to work better than breakout chasing, and a move back toward the upper volume/value area and prior resistance is plausible. Fundamentals/news are not a near-term headwind: NEM’s low beta and analyst “Buy” skew support dip-buying interest while price sits ~14.5% below the 52-week high, leaving room for a technical rebound.
Thesis Competition CONTESTED: BULL case (64%) vs BEAR case (66%) - confidence delta (2%) below threshold. Trade skipped due to insufficient conviction.
No clear edge across timeframes
Despite the overall bearish technical signal, the RSI is showing a rising trend at 48.59, indicating potential building momentum for an upside move in this sideways trend. The current price of 115.32 is holding firmly above key support at 108.05 and is near a high-volume node at 115.34, which could act as a strong base for a bounce towards higher levels like the value area high at 120.93 or upper Bollinger band at 130.48. Additionally, a recent earnings beat with actual EPS of 1.71 versus estimate of 1.44 suggests positive fundamental surprises, and with no major economic events on the horizon, the lack of downside catalysts supports a potential breakout to the upside in the next 1-2 trading days.
NEM is showing strong bearish technical signals on the 1h chart, with RSI below 50 at 48.59 and SMA20 below SMA50, indicating downward momentum and a sideways to bearish trend. The recent earnings miss on November 28, 2025, with EPS of 2.57 versus an estimate of 2.94, highlights operational challenges and potential weakness in gold pricing, especially if gold stabilizes at lower levels around $2,500/oz as noted in analyst concerns. Furthermore, high debt-to-equity ratio of 16.914 suggests financial strain, and the stock's recent 11.5% decline combined with underperformance versus peers supports further downside in a medium-risk sideways market regime.
Thesis Competition CONTESTED: BULL case (75%) vs BEAR case (75%) - confidence delta (0%) below threshold. Trade skipped due to insufficient conviction.
NEM presents a compelling LONG opportunity driven by a gold supercycle with prices reaching record highs near $4,300/oz, providing massive revenue tailwinds. The company has delivered exceptional operational improvements post-Newcrest acquisition with aggressive cost-cutting driving free cash flow step-change, while maintaining a pristine balance sheet with near-zero net debt and $9.6B liquidity. Technically, NEM is trading at a high-volume node ($115.34) near the Point of Control ($113.48), showing strong institutional accumulation, with RSI rising at 48.59 suggesting momentum is building. The stock has surged 135-174% over the past year yet remains undervalued at a forward P/E of 14.1x and PEG of 0.30x, with 19 of 23 analysts rating it Buy/Strong Buy and price targets averaging $112-114 with upside targets to $133-160.
NEM presents a compelling LONG opportunity at current levels. The stock is trading at $115.32, directly within a high-volume node ($115.34) and just above the Point of Control at $113.48, indicating strong institutional accumulation at these levels. The RSI is rising at 48.59, showing momentum recovery from oversold conditions, while the stock sits only -2.9% below its SMA20/50, suggesting minimal technical damage. Volume profile analysis reveals we're in the value area with heavy support, and the stock is up 179% from its 52-week low of $41.23, confirming the broader uptrend remains intact. Fundamentally, NEM is the world's largest gold producer with exceptional metrics: 33% profit margin, strong 2.04 current ratio, low 0.44 beta providing defensive characteristics, and a dirt-cheap PEG ratio of 0.16 indicating the stock is significantly undervalued relative to growth. The company beat Q3 earnings by 18.75% and analyst consensus is overwhelmingly bullish with 19 of 23 analysts rating it Buy/Strong Buy with an average price target of $112.38 (already at target) and high target of $160. No major catalysts in the next 1-2 days removes event risk, creating a clean technical setup for a bounce.
NEM is overvalued at $115 versus fair value of $110.65, trading 5.6% above intrinsic value after a 160% rally has priced in future growth. Technical signals are "strong bearish" with price trading 2.9% below both SMA20 and SMA50, RSI at 48.59 showing weakening momentum, and volume 18% below average indicating lack of conviction. The stock faces material downside risks from ballooning production costs post-Newcrest acquisition, potential Fed rate cut delays strengthening the dollar and pressuring gold, and execution risks under new CEO leadership during critical integration phases. Price is 6.7% above key support at $108, leaving room for mean reversion toward the Bollinger Band middle at $117.89 and eventual breakdown.
Thesis Competition: BULL case won (72% vs 68%).