Infosys (INFY) presents a compelling long opportunity following a strategic upward revision of its FY26 revenue growth guidance to 3%-3.5%, signaling a robust recovery in discretionary tech spending. The company's recent performance is anchored by a massive $4.8 billion in deal wins, with over half being 'net new' contracts, alongside an 11-quarter high in hiring which reflects management's high conviction in the project pipeline. From a technical perspective, the stock is currently testing a critical support zone near 1604-1608 (Value Area Low), providing a high-probability entry point within a broader 'strong bull' market regime characterized by high risk appetite and declining volatility.
Despite the positive guidance, Infosys faces a challenging global macro environment where high interest rates could eventually curb enterprise IT budgets. Technically, the stock is currently trading below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages (both at 1658), and a failure to reclaim the Point of Control (POC) at 1663 could lead to a retest of the psychological 1600 support level. Additionally, the recent profit dip, while impacted by one-time costs, remains a point of concern for value-oriented investors.
Infosys (INFY) presents a compelling long opportunity following a strategic upward revision of its FY26 revenue growth guidance to 3%-3.5%, signaling a robust recovery in discretionary tech spending. The company's recent performance is anchored by a massive $4.8 billion in deal wins, with over half being 'net new' contracts, alongside an 11-quarter high in hiring which reflects management's high conviction in the project pipeline. From a technical perspective, the stock is currently testing a critical support zone near 1604-1608 (Value Area Low), providing a high-probability entry point within a broader 'strong bull' market regime characterized by high risk appetite and declining volatility.
Infosys presents a compelling long opportunity following its Q3 FY26 guidance hike to 3%-3.5% and a massive $4.8B in deal wins, 57% of which are 'net new,' signaling a robust demand recovery. The company's aggressive hiring (11k+ employees in two quarters) serves as a leading indicator of confidence in the project pipeline, while the stock is currently testing a critical technical support zone at 1604-1608. With the broader market in a 'strong bull' regime and VIX in deep contango, the current dip toward the Value Area Low (1608) offers a high-probability entry for a mean-reversion trade back toward the POC and analyst targets near 1750-1810.
INFY is currently exhibiting a 'strong bearish' technical signal with price trading below its SMA20 and SMA50, which have formed a bearish crossover. The stock is pinned near its Point of Control (POC) at 1663.50, but recent price action shows a failure to maintain levels above the Value Area High, suggesting a lack of buying conviction at higher prices. Furthermore, despite a broadly bullish market regime, INFY is underperforming with a falling RSI (47.59), indicating that capital is rotating out of this specific IT name even as the broader market reaches for highs, creating a prime opportunity for a short on a break of immediate support.
Thesis Competition: BULL case won (75% vs 68%).