LOSS-6.2%-1.0R|SHORTConditional|$199.62$212.004d 18h

VRT

NYSEBEARISH CONSENSUS
Position · Structural trend3 Models · Analysis Snapshot: Feb 11, 2026, 12:31 PM · Valid for ~48h
CompletedRe-run
BEARISH CONSENSUSConditional
3 models· Moderate agreement — may need confirmation
1 Long2 Short
Stop$210.00–$212.00
Entry$199.62
Target$172.43–$172.50
LowConditionalHigh
Key Disagreement
  • Gemini-3-Pro(72% LONG): "VRT is a premier 'pick-and-shovel' play on the unwavering AI infrastructure supercycle, specifically liquid cooling and power management where it holds a competitive moat. The stock is exhibiting massive relative strength, holding near all-time highs ( $199) while the broader market corrects, driven by the imminent catalyst of potential S&P 500 inclusion in Q1 2026. Technically, price is consolidating above rising moving averages ( $191) , and a breakout above $208 opens the door to 'blue sky' discovery toward $235, supported by recent 25% earnings beats and upward analyst revisions."
BEAR (2)
BULL (1)
0%0%
Bear Case(2 models)
Claude-Opus-4.50%

VRT presents a compelling short case driven by extreme valuation and deteriorating macro conditions. The stock trades at a P/E of 75.5x trailing earnings, 21.8x book value, and 38.4x EV/EBITDA - multiples that require flawless execution in a market regime transitioning from bull to bear (85% confidence) . The stock has rallied 272% from its 52-week low and is trading in a low-volume node zone ( $199-207) , meaning thin support overhead if selling pressure emerges. Critically, the market is showing early risk-off signals: credit spreads widening, aggressive flight-to-safety into treasuries (TLT +1.14%) and yen (FXY +1.05%) , while VRT's high beta (2.089) amplifies downside in risk-off environments. The Point of Control at $172.43 represents the volume-weighted fair value, suggesting 13.6% downside to equilibrium. With debt-to-equity at 91.6% and price-to-cash-flow at 48.9x, VRT is vulnerable to multiple compression if growth expectations moderate or rates stay elevated.

DeepSeek-R10%

Extreme valuations (P/E 75.6, P/S 7.9) appear unsustainable amid market regime shift to risk-off (85% confidence) . Trading near resistance at $208.43 in low-volume node area with high beta (2.09) increases vulnerability to de-risking. Technicals show bearish SMA 20/SMA 50 crossover and volume profile weakness.

Bull Case(3 models)
Gemini-3-Pro0%

VRT is a premier 'pick-and-shovel' play on the unwavering AI infrastructure supercycle, specifically liquid cooling and power management where it holds a competitive moat. The stock is exhibiting massive relative strength, holding near all-time highs ( $199) while the broader market corrects, driven by the imminent catalyst of potential S&P 500 inclusion in Q1 2026. Technically, price is consolidating above rising moving averages ( $191) , and a breakout above $208 opens the door to 'blue sky' discovery toward $235, supported by recent 25% earnings beats and upward analyst revisions.

Claude-Opus-4.50%

VRT has shown exceptional earnings execution with three consecutive EPS beats (25.25%, 14.46%, and 3.23% surprises), demonstrating strong operational performance in the data center infrastructure space. The stock is riding the AI/data center tailwind with significant institutional ownership (80.8%) and relatively low short interest (2.65%). The company benefits from secular growth in digital infrastructure demand as cloud computing and AI workloads expand. Forward P/E of 37.5x and PEG ratio of 0.62 suggest growth is being priced reasonably relative to earnings expansion trajectory.

DeepSeek-R10%

Vertiv benefits from strong data center demand and AI infrastructure trends, with recent earnings surprises (25% beat last quarter) and technical positioning above key SMAs. The RSI at 64.65 shows momentum remains intact, and volume profile indicates solid support at $172.43 if buyers emerge.

What Would Invalidate
  • Close above $212 (new 52-week high breakout) would invalidate the short thesis, indicating buyers are willing to pay even higher multiples and momentum is overwhelming valuation concerns.
  • Close below $184, breaking the 20-day SMA and recent consolidation support.
  • Daily close above $208.50 resistance with volume confirmation
DeepSeek R1Deep
Analysis Outcome
SHORTLEANING
2.61R·70% confidence
Entry
$199.62
Target
$172.50
Stop
$210.00

Extreme valuations (P/E 75.6, P/S 7.9) appear unsustainable amid market regime shift to risk-off (85% confidence) . Trading near resistance at $208.43 in low-volume node area with high beta (2.09) increases vulnerability to de-risking. Technicals show bearish SMA 20/SMA 50 crossover and volume profile weakness.

Bull/Bear CompetitionWinner: BEAR
Bear 70%Δ 5%Bull 65%
Bear Case

Extreme valuations (P/E 75.6, P/S 7.9) appear unsustainable amid market regime shift to risk-off (85% confidence) . Trading near resistance at $208.43 in low-volume node area with high beta (2.09) increases vulnerability to de-risking. Technicals show bearish SMA 20/SMA 50 crossover and volume profile weakness.

Bull Case

Vertiv (VRT) exhibits exceptional growth fundamentals with a PEG ratio of 0.62, indicating undervaluation relative to earnings growth. Consistent earnings beats (25% surprise last quarter) and 39% ROE reflect operational excellence. Technically, it trades above key moving averages with rising RSI and minimal volume resistance, positioning for breakout above $208.43 resistance.

Analysis Notes

Thesis Competition: BEAR case won (70% vs 65%).

7m 02s21 tools
Gemini 3 ProDeep
Analysis Outcome
LONG
2.34R·72% confidence
Entry
$199.62
Target
$235.00
Stop
$184.50

VRT is a premier 'pick-and-shovel' play on the unwavering AI infrastructure supercycle, specifically liquid cooling and power management where it holds a competitive moat. The stock is exhibiting massive relative strength, holding near all-time highs ( $199) while the broader market corrects, driven by the imminent catalyst of potential S&P 500 inclusion in Q1 2026. Technically, price is consolidating above rising moving averages ( $191) , and a breakout above $208 opens the door to 'blue sky' discovery toward $235, supported by recent 25% earnings beats and upward analyst revisions.

Bull/Bear CompetitionWinner: BULL
Bull 72%Δ 7%Bear 65%
Bull Case

VRT is a premier 'pick-and-shovel' play on the unwavering AI infrastructure supercycle, specifically liquid cooling and power management where it holds a competitive moat. The stock is exhibiting massive relative strength, holding near all-time highs ( $199) while the broader market corrects, driven by the imminent catalyst of potential S&P 500 inclusion in Q1 2026. Technically, price is consolidating above rising moving averages ( $191) , and a breakout above $208 opens the door to 'blue sky' discovery toward $235, supported by recent 25% earnings beats and upward analyst revisions.

Bear Case

VRT is trading at a precarious extension ( $199.62) right against its weekly upper Bollinger Band ( $200.83) while the broader market regime shifts to 'risk-off' (Regime: Transition Bull to Bear) . With a Beta of 2.09 and an exorbitant P/E of 75x, VRT is priced for perfection and highly vulnerable to the credit spread widening and flight-to-safety currently observed in macro signals. The volume profile reveals a 'low volume node' at these highs, suggesting a lack of structural support; a rejection here exposes a rapid air-pocket drop to the Value Area High ( $189) and ultimately the Point of Control at $172.

Analysis Notes

Thesis Competition: BULL case won (72% vs 65%).

2m 15s24 tools
Claude Opus 4.5Deep
Analysis Outcome
SHORTLEANING
2.20R·72% confidence
Entry
$199.62
Target
$172.43
Stop
$212.00

VRT presents a compelling short case driven by extreme valuation and deteriorating macro conditions. The stock trades at a P/E of 75.5x trailing earnings, 21.8x book value, and 38.4x EV/EBITDA - multiples that require flawless execution in a market regime transitioning from bull to bear (85% confidence) . The stock has rallied 272% from its 52-week low and is trading in a low-volume node zone ( $199-207) , meaning thin support overhead if selling pressure emerges. Critically, the market is showing early risk-off signals: credit spreads widening, aggressive flight-to-safety into treasuries (TLT +1.14%) and yen (FXY +1.05%) , while VRT's high beta (2.089) amplifies downside in risk-off environments. The Point of Control at $172.43 represents the volume-weighted fair value, suggesting 13.6% downside to equilibrium. With debt-to-equity at 91.6% and price-to-cash-flow at 48.9x, VRT is vulnerable to multiple compression if growth expectations moderate or rates stay elevated.

Bull/Bear CompetitionWinner: BEAR
Bear 72%Δ 4%Bull 68%
Bear Case

VRT presents a compelling short case driven by extreme valuation and deteriorating macro conditions. The stock trades at a P/E of 75.5x trailing earnings, 21.8x book value, and 38.4x EV/EBITDA - multiples that require flawless execution in a market regime transitioning from bull to bear (85% confidence) . The stock has rallied 272% from its 52-week low and is trading in a low-volume node zone ( $199-207) , meaning thin support overhead if selling pressure emerges. Critically, the market is showing early risk-off signals: credit spreads widening, aggressive flight-to-safety into treasuries (TLT +1.14%) and yen (FXY +1.05%) , while VRT's high beta (2.089) amplifies downside in risk-off environments. The Point of Control at $172.43 represents the volume-weighted fair value, suggesting 13.6% downside to equilibrium. With debt-to-equity at 91.6% and price-to-cash-flow at 48.9x, VRT is vulnerable to multiple compression if growth expectations moderate or rates stay elevated.

Bull Case

Vertiv Holdings is a premier AI infrastructure play with exceptional fundamental growth characteristics - a PEG ratio of just 0.62 signals the stock is significantly undervalued relative to its growth trajectory. The company has delivered three consecutive earnings beats (25.25%, 14.46%, and 3.23% surprises) , demonstrating consistent execution and demand for its data center power management and liquid cooling solutions. Technically, VRT is trading just 4.2% below its 52-week high of $208.43 with rising RSI momentum (64.65) and above-average volume (1.12x) , indicating strong accumulation. The bullish catalyst pipeline is robust: potential S&P 500 inclusion in Q1 2026 would trigger significant passive fund inflows, while the company's new modular power and liquid cooling systems for AI/HPC environments position it at the epicenter of the AI infrastructure buildout. Analyst sentiment is overwhelmingly positive with "Strong Buy" consensus and recent price target upgrades from RBC and Barclays to $200 (already achieved) , with high targets reaching $216-220. The stock is currently in a low-volume node zone ( $200-207) , meaning resistance is thin and a breakout to new all-time highs could accelerate quickly once the $208 level is cleared.

Analysis Notes

Thesis Competition: BEAR case won (72% vs 68%).

1m 33s32 tools
VRT Analysis | TradeHorde