QCOM is oversold at RSI 23.07 with price 7.2% below both SMA20 and SMA50, creating a high-probability mean-reversion setup. Recent Q1 earnings beat by 15.5% with all three business segments (Handsets,
QUALCOMM Incorporated Q COM is a leading player in the semiconductor industry, with significant market share in wireless technology advancements. The company's robust intellectual property portfolio and its pivotal role in 5 G technology could drive strong revenue growth in the coming years. Furthermore, QCOM'sfocusonAI, automotive, and cloud computing positions it well for future technology shifts.
QCOM is reeling from a massive 11.7% post-earnings sell-off triggered by a dismal licensing revenue outlook following the expiration of its Huawei agreement. Technical indicators confirm extreme bearish momentum, with the stock trading below its 20-day and 50-day SMAs and a bearish MACD crossover. Furthermore, headwinds in the China smartphone market and AI-driven memory supply shortages create a fundamental ceiling on near-term recovery, likely driving price toward the $120.80 52-week low.
Q COM is currently trading at a price of 137. 34, which is significantly below the 20 day and 50 day simple moving averages, indicatingabearishtrend. The RSI is extremely oversold at 23. 07, suggesting potential for further downside despite a possible short term bounce. The price is also nearing a low volume node at 144. 37, which could act as a resistance level. Additionally, despite its technological advancements, QCOM'svaluationmetrics, suchasaP/Eof27. 48andaPEGratioof-15. 72, indicate potential over valuation relative to earnings growth, whichposesdownsiderisks.
Balanced: bull (72%) and bear (72%) are closely matched (edge score: 0%)
QCOM presents a compelling LONG setup despite recent weakness. The stock just beat Q1 earnings estimates with strong AI-driven demand in high-end mobile devices and positive surprises in Automotive/IoT segments, signaling successful diversification beyond smartphones. Technically, RSI at 23.07 is deeply oversold (<30), price sits 3.5% above support (132.73), and the Point of Control (152.13) at the high-volume node provides a clear 10.64% upside target with 3.07:1 reward-to-risk ratio. The recent 11.7% sell-off has created an attractive risk/reward setup near support with volume confirmation (15M shares vs. 12.9M average).
QCOM faces a structural revenue cliff from Huawei licensing deal expiration (zero growth expected in QTL segment), compounded by Chinese OEM inventory destocking and memory supply constraints cutting into handset demand. The stock plunged 11.7% post-earnings despite beating estimates, revealing guidance was the real negative catalyst. With RSI falling (not bouncing) despite oversold levels, momentum is deteriorating, not improving. Support at $132.73 is dangerously close at 3.5% below current price, and a breakdown opens the door to $120 and lower. The elevated 27.5x P/E and 64x debt-to-equity leave little margin for error as guidance revisions likely continue downward.
Thesis Competition: BULL case won (72% vs 68%).
Leveraging the post-earnings momentum and fundamental breakdown in licensing revenue.
QCOM is currently presenting a compelling deep-value opportunity as it trades near the bottom of its Value Area ($136.61) with an extremely oversold RSI of 23.07, suggesting an imminent mean-reversion bounce. Despite licensing concerns, the company recently beat Q1 earnings expectations ($3.41 vs $2.96) and is showing robust growth in Automotive and IoT sectors, trading at an attractive forward P/E of just 11.8x. High institutional ownership (82%) provides a stable floor near the $132.73 support level, making this a high-probability reversal play back toward the Point of Control at $152.13.
QCOM is facing severe structural headwinds following its recent earnings report, specifically a warning of zero growth in its high-margin licensing division (QTL) due to the Huawei contract expiration. Despite a headline beat, the stock is showing technical breakdown, trading below its 20 and 50 SMAs with a bearish crossover and significant volume coming in on the sell-side. The price has breached the Value Area Low ($136.61) on the volume profile, suggesting a lack of buyer conviction and potential for a slide toward the 52-week low near $120.80.
Thesis Competition CONTESTED: BULL case (72%) vs BEAR case (72%) - confidence delta (0%) below threshold. Trade skipped due to insufficient conviction.
No clear edge across timeframes
Qualcomm (QCOM) presents a strong long opportunity due to its current oversold condition, as indicated by an RSI of 23.07, which historically precedes recovery rallies. The stock is trading near a significant support level at $132.73 and shows potential for a bounce towards the resistance at $156.74. Additionally, despite recent negative sentiment from weak Q2 guidance, the company has a strong presence in growing sectors like Automotive and IoT, and its valuation is attractive with a forward P/E of 15.02, lower than peers like Nvidia and AMD.
Qualcomm currently shows a bearish technical setup with the price trading significantly below its 20 day and 50 day moving averages, indicating a strong down trend. TheRSIisoversoldat23. 07, which often suggests further downside before a reversal occurs. The volume profile shows the point of control at 152. 13, wellabovethecurrentprice, indicating strong resistance overhead. The market regime is sideways with a medium risk level, making it susceptible to further declines without a strong bullish catalyst.
Thesis Competition: BULL case won (75% vs 72%).