META is testing critical support at $632 (just 1% above) with RSI deeply oversold at 35.58, creating a high-probability mean-reversion setup. The company just beat Q4 earnings by 16% with AI-driven ad revenue surging 24%, while Bill Ackman's Pershing Square disclosed a major stake calling META "one of the world's greatest businesses. " Volume profile shows we're at a high-volume node ( $646.80) near the value area low ( $618) , indicating institutional accumulation. BofA maintains an $810 price target, suggesting 27% upside, while the massive $115-135B AI CapEx investment positions META as the infrastructure leader in the AI revolution. Next earnings not until late April gives a clean 10-week runway for recovery toward the $690 resistance (Point of Control at $668) .
Strong technical setup with price near key support ($631.97) and oversold RSI (35.58) suggests upside potential. Fundamental strength with 30.2% ROE and AI-driven ad revenue growth (+24%) supports long-term growth. Market regime transitioning with risk-on indicators (VIX contango) and $135B capex fueling future AI dominance.
META is testing a defined support zone (~ $632) with price still inside daily Bollinger Bands and sitting near high-volume acceptance areas (volume profile HVNs around ~ $647– $654) , which often provides a base for a mean-reversion swing back toward the value area and prior supply. A move back toward the volume-profile low-volume pocket into ~ $690– $705 is plausible if price reclaims the mid/acceptance region (near POC ~ $668) , and the broader macro tape remains constructive with VIX term structure in contango and the regime model recommending a long-bias. Fundamentally, Meta remains a high-quality cash-generative platform business (~30% profit margin, ~30% ROE) with a reasonable forward P/E (~18) for its scale, and recent news flow highlights AI-driven ad improvements and strong demand in wearables, providing a narrative catalyst for multiple expansion if execution continues.
The staggering $115-135B CapEx guidance (87% increase YoY) has crushed operating margins from 48% to 41%, spooking growth investors who fear profitability compression. META is down 20% from its $796 all-time high with technical momentum deteriorating (RSI falling, MACD flat, price below both SMA 20/50) . The broader market regime shows rotation away from mega-cap tech into small-caps and cyclicals (IWM outperforming) , while the research desk flags credit stress and risk-off flows as bearish conflicts. European regulatory pressure continues with Italy forcing Whats App interoperability, and the forward P/E of 17.9x may not provide enough cushion if AI monetization disappoints relative to the massive infrastructure spend.
Aggressive spending narrows margins (41% operating margin down from 48%). Regulatory risks (EU antitrust) and technical resistance at SMA20 ($660.56) could limit upside. High volatility (ATR 2.31%) increases near-term risk exposure.
META is exhibiting a classic 'capital discipline' breakdown. Despite an earnings beat, the stock has rejected the $744 peak and broken key trend structure due to a massive $135B Capex guidance shock that is compressing operating margins (down to 41% from 48%). Technicals are definitively bearish: price is trading below the 20-day and 50-day SMAs, and the Volume Profile shows a massive overhead supply overhang at the Point of Control ($668), creating a 'sell the rally' dynamic. The daily RSI at 35 indicates strong momentum to the downside without being fully exhausted, targeting the Value Area Low near $618 and lower Bollinger Bands.
Technicals are still pressured: daily RSI is weak (~35) with a falling RSI trend, and price is below the key moving averages (SMA 20/SMA 50 around ~ $661) , suggesting rallies can fail until META reclaims that zone. The market regime is labeled “transition” with medium risk and explicit conflicting research-desk themes (potential risk-off rotation/credit volatility) , so a macro wobble could break the ~ $632 support and trigger a fast move toward the next demand area. Additionally, elevated AI capex narratives or regulatory headlines can quickly flip sentiment and compress the multiple even if core ads remain healthy.
META is testing critical support at $632 (just 1% above) with RSI deeply oversold at 35.58, creating a high-probability mean-reversion setup. The company just beat Q4 earnings by 16% with AI-driven ad revenue surging 24%, while Bill Ackman's Pershing Square disclosed a major stake calling META "one of the world's greatest businesses. " Volume profile shows we're at a high-volume node ( $646.80) near the value area low ( $618) , indicating institutional accumulation. BofA maintains an $810 price target, suggesting 27% upside, while the massive $115-135B AI CapEx investment positions META as the infrastructure leader in the AI revolution. Next earnings not until late April gives a clean 10-week runway for recovery toward the $690 resistance (Point of Control at $668) .
META is testing critical support at $632 (just 1% above) with RSI deeply oversold at 35.58, creating a high-probability mean-reversion setup. The company just beat Q4 earnings by 16% with AI-driven ad revenue surging 24%, while Bill Ackman's Pershing Square disclosed a major stake calling META "one of the world's greatest businesses. " Volume profile shows we're at a high-volume node ( $646.80) near the value area low ( $618) , indicating institutional accumulation. BofA maintains an $810 price target, suggesting 27% upside, while the massive $115-135B AI CapEx investment positions META as the infrastructure leader in the AI revolution. Next earnings not until late April gives a clean 10-week runway for recovery toward the $690 resistance (Point of Control at $668) .
META is caught in a catastrophic margin compression spiral with operating margins collapsing from 48% to 41% YoY due to an unprecedented $115-135B CapEx bet on AI infrastructure—a staggering 87% increase that has shocked investors and triggered a 13% selloff from post-earnings highs. Technically, the stock is in a confirmed downtrend with RSI at deeply bearish 35.58, price trading 3.4% below both SMA20 and SMA50, and sitting just 1% above critical support at $631.97. The market regime shows rotation AWAY from mega-cap tech into small-caps and equal-weight (IWM outperformance, RSP/SPY broadening) , directly headwind to META's $1.6T valuation. Current price at $638.20 sits in a high-volume node but below the Point of Control at $668.40, with low-volume air pockets above suggesting failed breakout attempts. The October 2025 earnings disaster (-84% EPS surprise miss) still haunts investor confidence, and the next earnings on April 27 presents binary risk within the swing horizon.
Thesis Competition: BULL case won (78% vs 74%).
LONG swing: support test near ~$632 with oversold RSI and high-volume support; aim for rotation back to value/POC then into the low-volume pocket near ~$700 while controlling risk below value-area low.
META is testing a defined support zone (~ $632) with price still inside daily Bollinger Bands and sitting near high-volume acceptance areas (volume profile HVNs around ~ $647– $654) , which often provides a base for a mean-reversion swing back toward the value area and prior supply. A move back toward the volume-profile low-volume pocket into ~ $690– $705 is plausible if price reclaims the mid/acceptance region (near POC ~ $668) , and the broader macro tape remains constructive with VIX term structure in contango and the regime model recommending a long-bias. Fundamentally, Meta remains a high-quality cash-generative platform business (~30% profit margin, ~30% ROE) with a reasonable forward P/E (~18) for its scale, and recent news flow highlights AI-driven ad improvements and strong demand in wearables, providing a narrative catalyst for multiple expansion if execution continues.
Technicals are deteriorating: price (~ $638) is below the key moving averages (SMA 20/50 ~ $660) with a falling RSI and a ‘support test’ setup near ~ $632—raising the odds of a breakdown and momentum follow-through lower. Volume profile shows the point of control near ~ $668 and value area low near ~ $618; if $632 fails, price can traverse the lower-volume pocket toward ~ $618 and potentially the mid/high- $500s within a 1–3 week swing. Fundamentally, sentiment risk is asymmetric on the downside given elevated valuation multiples (P/S ~8, P/B ~7.5) alongside narrative risk from massive AI capex guidance and ongoing regulatory overhang, which can pressure multiples if growth expectations slip.
Thesis Competition: BULL case won (64% vs 62%).
Strong technical setup with price near key support ($631.97) and oversold RSI (35.58) suggests upside potential. Fundamental strength with 30.2% ROE and AI-driven ad revenue growth (+24%) supports long-term growth. Market regime transitioning with risk-on indicators (VIX contango) and $135B capex fueling future AI dominance.
Strong technical setup with price near key support ($631.97) and oversold RSI (35.58) suggests upside potential. Fundamental strength with 30.2% ROE and AI-driven ad revenue growth (+24%) supports long-term growth. Market regime transitioning with risk-on indicators (VIX contango) and $135B capex fueling future AI dominance.
Price is breaking below critical moving averages (SMA 20/SMA 50) with bearish momentum. Aggressive $135B capex is compressing margins from 48% to 41%, while EU antitrust charges create regulatory overhang. Market rotation from mega-caps to small-caps creates sector headwinds.
Thesis Competition: BULL case won (78% vs 70%).
META is exhibiting a classic 'capital discipline' breakdown. Despite an earnings beat, the stock has rejected the $744 peak and broken key trend structure due to a massive $135B Capex guidance shock that is compressing operating margins (down to 41% from 48%). Technicals are definitively bearish: price is trading below the 20-day and 50-day SMAs, and the Volume Profile shows a massive overhead supply overhang at the Point of Control ($668), creating a 'sell the rally' dynamic. The daily RSI at 35 indicates strong momentum to the downside without being fully exhausted, targeting the Value Area Low near $618 and lower Bollinger Bands.
META is exhibiting a classic 'capital discipline' breakdown. Despite an earnings beat, the stock has rejected the $744 peak and broken key trend structure due to a massive $135B Capex guidance shock that is compressing operating margins (down to 41% from 48%). Technicals are definitively bearish: price is trading below the 20-day and 50-day SMAs, and the Volume Profile shows a massive overhead supply overhang at the Point of Control ($668), creating a 'sell the rally' dynamic. The daily RSI at 35 indicates strong momentum to the downside without being fully exhausted, targeting the Value Area Low near $618 and lower Bollinger Bands.
META presents a classic 'buy the dip' opportunity, trading into deep oversold territory (RSI 35) near critical support at $631 and the Value Area Low ($618). Unlike peers trading on AI hype, META is delivering tangible results: the new 'Andromeda' AI system has already driven a 24% surge in ad revenue, proving the 'AI Dividend' is real. The current pullback is a reaction to Capex spending fears—a historical pattern for Zuckerberg (like the Mobile pivot) that typically precedes a major leg up once execution is proven.
Thesis Competition: BEAR case won (75% vs 65%).