SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Stock Analysis & Forecast
TradeHorde's multi-model system has generated 11 signals on SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), with transparent outcome tracking on every resolved setup.
Latest forecast: Bullish at 59% conviction based on consensus across 3 frontier models.
Track record on SPY: 73% win rate across 11 resolved signals with an average R-multiple of +1.4.
SPY
$744.78-0.13%Market ClosedSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust • NYSE
Latest Analysis
Bullish75/100All three models agree that SPY is positioned for a near-term rebound as it holds critical support at the 30-day POC ($743.97) and 30-minute support ($742.89) within a confirmed bullish regime. Improving short-term momentum (RSI/MACD) and a dovish June jobs miss provide the catalyst for a push toward the $746.49–$748.76 resistance band. Unique tailwinds include a rotation into value/cyclicals and upcoming July 14 catalysts like CPI and bank earnings that could sustain the risk-on environment.
All three models warn of a high-probability rejection at the $746.49–$749.53 multi-timeframe resistance cluster due to stalling momentum and daily MACD exhaustion. DeepSeek and Mistral highlight that the rally lacks fresh catalysts and is built on narrow leadership, with DeepSeek specifically noting negative divergences in IWM, HYG, and TLT. A failure at this supply shelf targets a mean-reversion move back to the $744 POC, with a potential break toward $739.2 if cross-asset divergences resolve lower.
Resolved Signals
11 resolved| Symbol | Dir | Result | Return | R | Closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPY | Long | Loss | -1.9% | -1.0R | 14d ago |
SPY | Short | Win | +0.6% | +1.8R | 32d ago |
SPY | Short | Loss | -0.3% | -0.5R | 47d ago |
SPY | Short | Win | +1.0% | +2.7R | 56d ago |
SPY | Long | Win | +0.5% | +1.7R | 81d ago |
SPY | Short | Loss | -0.4% | -0.5R | 99d ago |
SPY | Short | Win | +1.4% | +1.7R | 109d ago |
SPY | Short | Win | +1.7% | +2.0R | 152d ago |
SPY | Short | Win | +2.3% | +2.4R | 152d ago |
SPY | Short | Win | +1.8% | +2.5R | 152d ago |