SPY

"**Thesis for SPY Short Position** As of September 25, 2025, SPY is trading at $657.15, reflecting a slight decline of 0.60% today. Over the past week, SPY has exhibited a bearish momentum, with a series of lower highs and lower lows, suggesting a potential continuation of this downward trend. The recent price action indicates a struggle to maintain upward momentum, with resistance forming around the $660 level, where sellers have consistently stepped in. In the last seven days, there have been no significant catalysts to drive SPY higher, leaving the market vulnerable to further declines. The absence of positive news or economic indicators reinforces the bearish sentiment, as traders appear hesitant to commit to long positions without a clear bullish signal. This lack of momentum, combined with the current price action, supports a speculative short position with a target of $650 and a stop at $660, yielding a risk/reward ratio of 1:2.6. However, it is essential to consider the contrarian risk associated with this short position. A sudden shift in market sentiment, driven by unexpected positive news or a broader market rally, could lead to a rapid price increase. Additionally, SPY's historical resilience and tendency to recover from short-term dips present a risk that could invalidate this short thesis. In conclusion, while the current technical indicators and lack of recent catalysts support a short position on SPY, traders must remain vigilant about potential market reversals. The current momentum suggests a bearish outlook, but the inherent risks of a contrarian move necessitate careful monitoring of price action and market sentiment. A disciplined approach with a clearly defined stop-loss will be crucial in navigating this speculative trade. --- Trade Exited --- Reason: not feeling it."