Research desk report triggered reanalysis on INFY. Verdict: HOLD (1/3 EXIT). Conviction: 46.
22% base +10 (Rupee weakness structural tailwind for IT exporters) +7 (Strong earnings beat + Stratus acquisition catalyst) +4 (Price holding above stop; MACD histogram contracting bullishly) -4 (QQQ divergence and falling daily RSI (37.05)) -7 (Premortem: AI disruption fears trigger renewed selling through stop) = 32%
22% base +23 (Time horizon expired without follow-through) +22 (Weak momentum into stacked resistance) -4 (Rupee-exporter theme offers only partial support) -5 (Premortem: rejection at ₹1297 sends INFY back toward stop) = 58%
22% base +15 (Research desk strengthens rupee weakness thesis) +12 (Technical picture supportive for continuation) +10 (Market regime trending/bullish supportive) -8 (Premortem: RBI rupee stabilization reduces export advantage) = 51%