Market Regime

This is a marginal bullish lean, close to a coin flip. Character stays unknown (no edge), so this is only a narrow sign call and not a regime claim. The early session continues the prior bullish read. Large caps and the Nasdaq are higher. High-yield and investment-grade credit are both firmer. Long-end Treasury yields are easing slightly from elevated levels, and the dollar is softer on the day. That combination supports risk appetite rather than undermining it. Volatility is calm, with the VIX term structure in contango, low implied correlation, and implied vol aligned with realized. This removes a near-term stress catalyst, but on its own it does not set direction. Several factors cut against the bullish case. Small caps are flat and equal-weight is lagging SPY, extending a five-day pattern of narrowing breadth. The UK, Germany, Canada and India have all underperformed the US over five sessions, so US strength lacks global confirmation. Real yields and the long end had been rising into this week, and the dollar is still strong on a five-day basis. This is a materially unchanged picture from the prior detection, so I keep the bullish lean. Confidence stays low because recent bullish calls have had a weak hit rate and this reading is taken shortly after the open.

No-edge character: keep sizing small with only a slight long tilt. Favor broad-index exposure over concentrated mega-cap bets, and cut the lean if credit softens or yields re-accelerate higher.