The original short thesis remains intact as ASML continues to trade below key moving averages on the 4h and daily charts, with bearish MACD structure persisting. Recent CEO commentary confirming imminent High-NA chip production acts as a near-term catalyst that may cap upside, keeping price under distribution pressure. With the stock still 3.5% below entry and well below the stop, the risk/reward remains asymmetric in favor of holding the position.
The original thesis is still valid, with ASML's High-NA technology and AI infrastructure spending driving growth. The current price is near support levels, and the potential for a price bounce is high.
The short should still be held because price remains below entry, below the 4h SMA20 and slightly below the daily SMA20, with both 4h and daily momentum readings still tilted bearish. The stock is trading just under immediate resistance around 1475 and has not reclaimed the stronger daily resistance near 1539, so the technical path toward a retest of 1450 support and potentially 1400 remains open within the remaining horizon.
No model argued for EXIT.
The short should still be held because price remains below entry, below the 4h SMA20 and slightly below the daily SMA20, with both 4h and daily momentum readings still tilted bearish. The stock is trading just under immediate resistance around 1475 and has not reclaimed the stronger daily resistance near 1539, so the technical path toward a retest of 1450 support and potentially 1400 remains open within the remaining horizon.
The short should still be held because price remains below entry, below the 4h SMA20 and slightly below the daily SMA20, with both 4h and daily momentum readings still tilted bearish. The stock is trading just under immediate resistance around 1475 and has not reclaimed the stronger daily resistance near 1539, so the technical path toward a retest of 1450 support and potentially 1400 remains open within the remaining horizon.
▼ Click to expandThe case to close would be that the High-NA catalyst marks a fresh fundamental re-acceleration and triggers a decisive reclaim of 1475 followed by 1539, showing that buyers are willing to pay up again despite prior weakness. If price starts holding above those levels into the FOMC event and squeezes toward the effective stop, the short would lose its structural edge and should be exited rather than waiting for full invalidation.
▼ Click to expandThe original short thesis remains intact as ASML continues to trade below key moving averages on the 4h and daily charts, with bearish MACD structure persisting. Recent CEO commentary confirming imminent High-NA chip production acts as a near-term catalyst that may cap upside, keeping price under distribution pressure. With the stock still 3.5% below entry and well below the stop, the risk/reward remains asymmetric in favor of holding the position.
The original short thesis remains intact as ASML continues to trade below key moving averages on the 4h and daily charts, with bearish MACD structure persisting. Recent CEO commentary confirming imminent High-NA chip production acts as a near-term catalyst that may cap upside, keeping price under distribution pressure. With the stock still 3.5% below entry and well below the stop, the risk/reward remains asymmetric in favor of holding the position.
▼ Click to expandThe short thesis is deteriorating as ASML has found support near $1450 and shows early signs of stabilization on the 30-minute chart, including a bullish MACD crossover and RSI recovery from oversold levels. Strong recent earnings and a Goldman Sachs price target hike to €1,600 suggest growing bullish sentiment that could accelerate a reversal if momentum shifts. With FOMC minutes due within 24 hours, volatility may spike and force an early stop run, reducing the probability of reaching the original target.
▼ Click to expandThe original thesis is still valid, with ASML's High-NA technology and AI infrastructure spending driving growth. The current price is near support levels, and the potential for a price bounce is high.
The original thesis is still valid, with ASML's High-NA technology and AI infrastructure spending driving growth. The current price is near support levels, and the potential for a price bounce is high.
▼ Click to expandThe position should be closed if the technical stop is hit or breached, or if breaking news changes fundamentals. The current RSI and MACD indicators are bearish, but the overall trend is still intact.
▼ Click to expandIntraday discovery triggered reanalysis on ASML. Verdict: HOLD (0/3 EXIT). Conviction: 67.