Strong technical weakness with price below all key MAs (4970), RSI trending downward at 33.95, and failed support tests at 4750. Volume profile shows weak accumulation near current prices with high liquidity above (5367-5528). Trading 28% below 52-week high with recent earnings misses (-11% in Jul 2025) suggests fundamental deterioration. Current volume at 77% of average indicates lack of buyer conviction.
TATAELXSI presents a compelling short case with multiple bearish confluences. The technical picture is strongly bearish: RSI at 33.95 and falling, price trading 28% below its 52-week high, and both SMA20 and SMA50 converging as resistance at ₹4, 970. The stock is testing critical support at ₹4, 750, with only 1.9% cushion before breaking the 52-week low. Fundamentally, the valuation remains stretched with P/E of 52x and P/B of 11.2x despite deteriorating earnings - Q2 FY2026 showed net income down 32.5% YoY and operating income down 29% YoY. Revenue declined 3.87% YoY, signaling demand weakness. The volume profile shows current price (₹4, 838) is well below the Point of Control (₹5, 367) and Value Area Low (₹4, 830) , indicating sellers are in control and price has rejected the value zone. News sentiment is mixed-to-negative with analysts warning of 'unpleasant surprises' ahead. A break below ₹4, 700 support would trigger stop-losses and accelerate the downtrend toward ₹4, 400-4, 500.
Technicals favor continuation lower: price (~₹4, 838) is below the 20/50 moving averages (~₹4, 970) , RSI is bearishly below 50 and still falling, and the chart is explicitly in a “support test” pattern—conditions that often resolve with a breakdown. Volume is also below average (~0.77×) , suggesting weak demand on bounces, while volume profile shows the major high-volume acceptance (POC ~₹5, 368) far overhead, meaning rallies may face heavy supply before any trend reversal. Fundamentally, valuation remains rich (P/E ~52, P/B ~11, EV/EBITDA ~36) ; if growth expectations soften, multiple compression can amplify downside even without a new negative catalyst.
TATAELXSI exhibits severe technical deterioration with strong bearish signals across multiple timeframes: RSI at 33.95 (deeply oversold and falling), price trading 28.2% below 52-week high, below both SMA20 and SMA50, and volume 23% below average signaling weak buyer conviction. The stock declined 9.14% in the last month and 18.48% YTD, establishing a clear downtrend. Fundamentally, Q3 FY2026 earnings missed analyst expectations in January, and the company trades at a stretched P/E of 52.08x with PEG of -0.99 indicating negative growth expectations relative to valuation. Volume profile shows P
Potential bullish reversal exists if TATAELXSI holds above 4750 support with RSI(33.95) nearing oversold levels. High-volume nodes clustered at 5367-5528 could attract buyers if price reclaims SMAs at 4970. Calm market regime (76% confidence) might support mean reversion given lack of immediate catalysts.
The stock is trading near its 52-week low (₹4,700) with RSI at 33.95, suggesting oversold conditions that could trigger a technical bounce. The company has a strong ROE of 27.4% and low debt-to-equity (6.26), indicating solid fundamentals. The market regime is calm with bullish bias, which could support a broader risk-on environment. Long-term earnings growth forecasts of 22.26% per year suggest potential value at current depressed levels, and the recent Q3 earnings beat of 10% surprise could attract buyers.
A tactical bounce is plausible because price is only ~2% above the 4h support zone near ₹4,750 and RSI (~33.95) is approaching oversold, which often attracts dip-buyers. The broader market regime is calm/trending with a mild bullish bias, which can support mean-reversion rallies if the stock reclaims its moving averages (~₹4,970). Also, the company retains a quality profile (high ROE/ROA, low beta) that can keep longer-term investors engaged on pullbacks.
TATAELXSI is testing critical support at ₹4, 750 just 2.9% above its 52-week low of ₹4, 700, presenting an exceptional risk/reward entry point for a mean-reversion swing trade. The company secured $100M+ in marquee deals (media engineering and €50M SDV contract with European OEM) that will ramp in late FY 2026/early FY2027, providing fundamental catalysts for re-rating. Despite recent earnings miss, analysts forecast 22.26% annual earnings growth with strong fundamentals (27.4% ROE, 15.7% profit margin, healthy 5.28 current ratio) . Technical setup shows deeply oversold RSI at 33.95 with price
Strong technical weakness with price below all key MAs (4970), RSI trending downward at 33.95, and failed support tests at 4750. Volume profile shows weak accumulation near current prices with high liquidity above (5367-5528). Trading 28% below 52-week high with recent earnings misses (-11% in Jul 2025) suggests fundamental deterioration. Current volume at 77% of average indicates lack of buyer conviction.
Strong technical weakness with price below all key MAs (4970), RSI trending downward at 33.95, and failed support tests at 4750. Volume profile shows weak accumulation near current prices with high liquidity above (5367-5528). Trading 28% below 52-week high with recent earnings misses (-11% in Jul 2025) suggests fundamental deterioration. Current volume at 77% of average indicates lack of buyer conviction.
TATAELXSI shows oversold conditions with RSI(33.95) near support at 4750, presenting technical rebound potential. Strong fundamentals with 27.4% ROE and 15.7% profit margin support valuation in growing tech sectors. Market regime favors trend strategies with calm conditions (76% confidence) and bullish SPY momentum, while recent earnings surprises (+10% EPS beat) demonstrate operational resilience.
Thesis Competition: BEAR case won (72% vs 68%).
SHORT on breakdown: bearish momentum below key MAs with a support-test setup; rich valuation and overhead volume acceptance increase the odds of a failed bounce and continuation lower.
Technicals favor continuation lower: price (~₹4, 838) is below the 20/50 moving averages (~₹4, 970) , RSI is bearishly below 50 and still falling, and the chart is explicitly in a “support test” pattern—conditions that often resolve with a breakdown. Volume is also below average (~0.77×) , suggesting weak demand on bounces, while volume profile shows the major high-volume acceptance (POC ~₹5, 368) far overhead, meaning rallies may face heavy supply before any trend reversal. Fundamentally, valuation remains rich (P/E ~52, P/B ~11, EV/EBITDA ~36) ; if growth expectations soften, multiple compression can amplify downside even without a new negative catalyst.
TATAELXSI is testing a well-defined support zone near ₹4,750 while sitting only ~3% above its 52-week low, creating an attractive mean-reversion setup: 4h RSI is deeply oversold (~34) and price is hugging the lower Bollinger Band, conditions that often precede a bounce when support holds. The broader tape is supportive for a rebound attempt (market regime: calm/trend with low risk), and the volume profile shows price sitting at the value-area low (~₹4,830), which often acts as a springboard back toward the high-volume POC region (~₹5,368) and the nearby technical resistance (~₹5,398). Fundamentally, Tata Elxsi remains a high-quality engineering services franchise (ROE ~27%, strong liquidity with current ratio >5) and recent news flow highlights large multi-year deal wins in media/SDV, which can help sentiment recover after the drawdown.
Thesis Competition: BEAR case won (67% vs 62%).
Bull and bear cases balanced — no clear edge
TATAELXSI is testing critical support at ₹4, 750 just 2.9% above its 52-week low of ₹4, 700, presenting an exceptional risk/reward entry point for a mean-reversion swing trade. The company secured $100M+ in marquee deals (media engineering and €50M SDV contract with European OEM) that will ramp in late FY 2026/early FY2027, providing fundamental catalysts for re-rating. Despite recent earnings miss, analysts forecast 22.26% annual earnings growth with strong fundamentals (27.4% ROE, 15.7% profit margin, healthy 5.28 current ratio) . Technical setup shows deeply oversold RSI at 33.95 with price testing support in a calm market regime (76% confidence) that favors trend-following and mean-reversion setups. Volume profile shows Point of Control at ₹5, 367 and Value Area Low at ₹4, 830—current price of ₹4, 838 is right at the lower boundary where institutional buyers historically accumulated, suggesting strong support. With ATR at 2.23%, a target of ₹5, 200 (+7.2%) represents ~3.2x daily ATR, achievable within 1-3 week swing timeframe.
TATAELXSI exhibits severe technical deterioration with strong bearish signals across multiple timeframes: RSI at 33.95 (deeply oversold and falling), price trading 28.2% below 52-week high, below both SMA20 and SMA50, and volume 23% below average signaling weak buyer conviction. The stock declined 9.14% in the last month and 18.48% YTD, establishing a clear downtrend. Fundamentally, Q3 FY2026 earnings missed analyst expectations in January, and the company trades at a stretched P/E of 52.08x with PEG of -0.99 indicating negative growth expectations relative to valuation. Volume profile shows Point of Control at ₹5,367 (11% above current price) and high-volume resistance at ₹5,421-5,528, creating massive overhead supply. Derivatives data from Feb 12 showed 10.5% surge in open interest amid 4.64% price drop, indicating aggressive short positioning by informed traders. Support at ₹4,750 is only 1.9% away and a break targets ₹4,700 (52-week low) then ₹4,500.
Thesis Competition CONTESTED: BULL case (72%) vs BEAR case (72%) - confidence delta (0%) below threshold. Trade skipped due to insufficient conviction.
TATAELXSI presents a compelling short case with multiple bearish confluences. The technical picture is strongly bearish: RSI at 33.95 and falling, price trading 28% below its 52-week high, and both SMA20 and SMA50 converging as resistance at ₹4, 970. The stock is testing critical support at ₹4, 750, with only 1.9% cushion before breaking the 52-week low. Fundamentally, the valuation remains stretched with P/E of 52x and P/B of 11.2x despite deteriorating earnings - Q2 FY2026 showed net income down 32.5% YoY and operating income down 29% YoY. Revenue declined 3.87% YoY, signaling demand weakness. The volume profile shows current price (₹4, 838) is well below the Point of Control (₹5, 367) and Value Area Low (₹4, 830) , indicating sellers are in control and price has rejected the value zone. News sentiment is mixed-to-negative with analysts warning of 'unpleasant surprises' ahead. A break below ₹4, 700 support would trigger stop-losses and accelerate the downtrend toward ₹4, 400-4, 500.
TATAELXSI presents a compelling short case with multiple bearish confluences. The technical picture is strongly bearish: RSI at 33.95 and falling, price trading 28% below its 52-week high, and both SMA20 and SMA50 converging as resistance at ₹4, 970. The stock is testing critical support at ₹4, 750, with only 1.9% cushion before breaking the 52-week low. Fundamentally, the valuation remains stretched with P/E of 52x and P/B of 11.2x despite deteriorating earnings - Q2 FY2026 showed net income down 32.5% YoY and operating income down 29% YoY. Revenue declined 3.87% YoY, signaling demand weakness. The volume profile shows current price (₹4, 838) is well below the Point of Control (₹5, 367) and Value Area Low (₹4, 830) , indicating sellers are in control and price has rejected the value zone. News sentiment is mixed-to-negative with analysts warning of 'unpleasant surprises' ahead. A break below ₹4, 700 support would trigger stop-losses and accelerate the downtrend toward ₹4, 400-4, 500.
TATAELXSI is trading at a compelling technical support zone near its 52-week low of ₹4700 (only 2.94% above) , presenting a favorable risk-reward entry point for a mean-reversion long. The RSI at 33.95 indicates deeply oversold conditions, suggesting selling pressure may be exhausted and a relief rally is likely. The stock is testing the lower Bollinger Band (₹4692) which historically acts as a bounce zone. The calm market regime (76% confidence) with VIX complacent favors trend-following and momentum setups, while NSE is INLINE with the broader US bullish regime. Fundamentally, Tata Elxsi boasts strong quality metrics: ROE of 27.4%, ROA of 21.9%, and a healthy current ratio of 5.28 indicating excellent financial health. The company recently beat EPS estimates by 10% in January 2026 (₹28.92 vs ₹26.29 expected) , demonstrating operational resilience. With a forward P/E of 35.5 vs trailing P/E of 52, the market is pricing in earnings normalization, and the 22.26% long-term growth forecast suggests the current valuation dip may be overdone. No major earnings catalyst until April 2026 removes binary event risk from the swing trade horizon.
Thesis Competition: BEAR case won (68% vs 62%).