No signal was created. Models could not agree on a directional bias.

ASML

NASDAQNO EDGE
Swing · Multi-day confirmation4 Models · Analysis Snapshot: Feb 24, 2026, 2:43 PM · Valid for ~12h
CompletedRe-run
NO EDGE
4 models· Split decision
1 Long0 Short3 Contested
Key Disagreement
  • DeepSeek-R1(65% LONG): "ASML is positioned for breakout above $1,503 resistance with bullish RSI momentum, fueled by record €13.2B Q4 orders and revolutionary 1,000W EUV technology enabling 50%+ chip output gains. Dominant AI infrastructure demand and €12B buyback create fundamental tailwinds, while absence of near-term earnings avoids binary risk."
BULL (1)
BEAR (0)
0%3 skip0%
Bull Case(4 models)
DeepSeek-R10%

ASML is positioned for breakout above $1,503 resistance with bullish RSI momentum, fueled by record €13.2B Q4 orders and revolutionary 1,000W EUV technology enabling 50%+ chip output gains. Dominant AI infrastructure demand and €12B buyback create fundamental tailwinds, while absence of near-term earnings avoids binary risk.

Claude-Opus-4.5

ASML is testing its 52-week high resistance at $1503 (currently -0.5% from highs) with strong bullish momentum as RSI at 64.47 is rising and price trades 3.2% above both SMA20 and SMA50. The fundamental catalyst is exceptional: ASML just announced a breakthrough 1, 000-watt EUV light source (vs 600W industry standard) , enabling 50% throughput increases by 2030 - this production-ready technology solidifies their monopoly position. Q4 order intake of €13.2 billion was DOUBLE analyst estimates (€6.3B expected) , signaling explosive demand for AI chip manufacturing equipment. The stock has rallie

Claude-Sonnet-4.5

ASML is testing resistance at all-time highs ( $1503) with rising RSI momentum (64.47) and price 3.2% above both SMA 20/50, signaling technical strength. The company just announced a groundbreaking 1, 000-watt EUV light source (up from 600W) that analysts project could deliver 50% chip output increases by 2030, reinforcing its monopoly position in critical semiconductor lithography. Q4 order intake of €13.2B (more than double estimates) and 2026 revenue guidance of €34-39B with 53% gross margins demonstrate explosive AI-driven demand for advanced chip manufacturing equipment. The stock has low

GPT-5.2

ASML is pressing into a key 52-week resistance (~ $1503) with improving momentum: 4h RSI is firmly bullish (~64) and rising, price is above the 4h SMA 20/50, and the pattern is a clean resistance test that can turn into a breakout if it holds above the upper Bollinger region. Volume profile also shows current price sitting in a low-volume node near ~ $1497, meaning a confirmed break over ~ $1503 can ‘air pocket’ higher quickly toward the next supply zone, as there is relatively little recent traded volume to slow price discovery. Fundamentally and on sentiment, ASML remains the critical EUV bo

Bear Case(3 models)
Claude-Opus-4.5

ASML is testing major resistance at its 52-week high ( $1, 503.30) with price just 0.5% below this level, creating a high-probability rejection zone after a massive 75% rally over 12 months. The stock is trading in a low-volume node ( $1, 496.95 with 0% relative volume) , indicating price instability and vulnerability to sharp reversals. Valuation is extremely stretched with P/E at 50x, PEG ratio at 6.85x, and P/B at 24.5x - pricing in perfection with no margin of safety. The market regime is bearish/transitioning with flight-to-safety flows, VIX deterioration, and broad equity weakness - beta

Claude-Sonnet-4.5

ASML is testing critical resistance at $1, 503 (52-week high) after a parabolic 75% rally, currently trading in a low-volume rejection zone ( $1, 497 is the lowest volume node) which historically marks distribution areas where sellers emerge. The stock trades at 50x P/E and 24.6x P/B with a stretched PEG of 6.85, representing extreme valuation that prices in perfection while the 1, 700 job cuts (3.8% of workforce) signal internal execution risk during organizational restructuring. The bearish market regime (80% confidence, flight-to-safety into gold/treasuries, VIX deterioration) creates a hos

GPT-5.2

Technically, price is in a "resistance_test" just ~0.5% below major resistance/52-week high (1503) while the volume profile shows current price (1495) sitting on a low-volume node—often a weak acceptance area that can "air-pocket" lower back toward high-volume support (POC ~1421, value area high ~1459) . Macro regime is "transition" with bearish directional bias and high risk level; the backdrop (risk-off rotation, VIX term structure flattening, flight-to-safety) is a headwind for high-beta semiconductor equipment (beta ~1.46) and can pressure premium valuations. Fundamentally, ASML screens ex

What Would Create an Edge
  • Daily close below $1,420 (volume POC support)
DeepSeek R1Deep
Analysis Outcome
LONG
2.11R·65% confidence
Entry
$1505.00
Target
$1600.00
Stop
$1460.00

ASML is positioned for breakout above $1,503 resistance with bullish RSI momentum, fueled by record €13.2B Q4 orders and revolutionary 1,000W EUV technology enabling 50%+ chip output gains. Dominant AI infrastructure demand and €12B buyback create fundamental tailwinds, while absence of near-term earnings avoids binary risk.

Bull/Bear CompetitionWinner: BULL
Bull 65%Δ 5%Bear 60%
Bull Case

ASML is positioned for breakout above $1,503 resistance with bullish RSI momentum, fueled by record €13.2B Q4 orders and revolutionary 1,000W EUV technology enabling 50%+ chip output gains. Dominant AI infrastructure demand and €12B buyback create fundamental tailwinds, while absence of near-term earnings avoids binary risk.

Bear Case

ASML faces multiple headwinds: extreme valuations (PE 50, PS 17.5) make it vulnerable to compression amid bearish market regime. Restructuring signals internal challenges while geopolitical export restrictions threaten growth. Technicals show weakening momentum at key resistance with RSI approaching overbought territory.

Analysis Notes

Thesis Competition: BULL case won (65% vs 60%).

10m 50s23 tools
GPT-5.2Balanced
Analysis Outcome
NO TRADE0% edge
BULL
62%
BEAR
62%

Bull and bear cases balanced — no clear edge

Bull/Bear CompetitionBALANCED
Bull 62%Δ 0%Bear 62%
Bull Case

ASML is pressing into a key 52-week resistance (~ $1503) with improving momentum: 4h RSI is firmly bullish (~64) and rising, price is above the 4h SMA 20/50, and the pattern is a clean resistance test that can turn into a breakout if it holds above the upper Bollinger region. Volume profile also shows current price sitting in a low-volume node near ~ $1497, meaning a confirmed break over ~ $1503 can ‘air pocket’ higher quickly toward the next supply zone, as there is relatively little recent traded volume to slow price discovery. Fundamentally and on sentiment, ASML remains the critical EUV bottleneck winner; recent news highlights a 1, 000-watt EUV milestone (productivity upside narrative) and management-driven streamlining (potential margin support) , while prior earnings showed a solid beat—supporting the idea that buyers may pay up for quality despite macro noise.

Bear Case

Technically, price is in a "resistance_test" just ~0.5% below major resistance/52-week high (1503) while the volume profile shows current price (1495) sitting on a low-volume node—often a weak acceptance area that can "air-pocket" lower back toward high-volume support (POC ~1421, value area high ~1459) . Macro regime is "transition" with bearish directional bias and high risk level; the backdrop (risk-off rotation, VIX term structure flattening, flight-to-safety) is a headwind for high-beta semiconductor equipment (beta ~1.46) and can pressure premium valuations. Fundamentally, ASML screens expensive (P/E ~50, EV/EBITDA ~45, P/S ~17, PEG ~6.85) , so any sentiment wobble (AI/semis de-risking or guidance caution) can drive multiple compression, making a pullback to the volume POC a plausible 1–3 week mean reversion.

Analysis Notes

Thesis Competition CONTESTED: BULL case (62%) vs BEAR case (62%) - confidence delta (0%) below threshold. Trade skipped due to insufficient conviction.

4m 40s31 tools
Claude Opus 4.5Deep
Analysis Outcome
NO TRADE0% edge
BULL
58%
BEAR
58%

Bull and bear cases balanced — no clear edge

Bull/Bear CompetitionBALANCED
Bull 58%Δ 0%Bear 58%
Bull Case

ASML is testing its 52-week high resistance at $1503 (currently -0.5% from highs) with strong bullish momentum as RSI at 64.47 is rising and price trades 3.2% above both SMA20 and SMA50. The fundamental catalyst is exceptional: ASML just announced a breakthrough 1, 000-watt EUV light source (vs 600W industry standard) , enabling 50% throughput increases by 2030 - this production-ready technology solidifies their monopoly position. Q4 order intake of €13.2 billion was DOUBLE analyst estimates (€6.3B expected) , signaling explosive demand for AI chip manufacturing equipment. The stock has rallied 75% over 12 months with 158% gains from 52-week lows, demonstrating strong institutional conviction. Price is currently in a low-volume node area ( $1496.95) which typically allows for rapid price movement - a breakout above $1503 resistance could trigger a quick move higher with minimal resistance overhead. The annual report release on Feb 25 could serve as a near-term catalyst to validate long-term revenue targets of €34-39 billion.

Bear Case

ASML is testing major resistance at its 52-week high ( $1, 503.30) with price just 0.5% below this level, creating a high-probability rejection zone after a massive 75% rally over 12 months. The stock is trading in a low-volume node ( $1, 496.95 with 0% relative volume) , indicating price instability and vulnerability to sharp reversals. Valuation is extremely stretched with P/E at 50x, PEG ratio at 6.85x, and P/B at 24.5x - pricing in perfection with no margin of safety. The market regime is bearish/transitioning with flight-to-safety flows, VIX deterioration, and broad equity weakness - beta of 1.46 means ASML will amplify any market selloff. SMA20 < SMA50 confirms underlying bearish structure despite the recent rally. The Point of Control at $1, 420.85 represents a natural gravitational pull for price, offering a 5% downside target.

Analysis Notes

Thesis Competition CONTESTED: BULL case (58%) vs BEAR case (58%) - confidence delta (0%) below threshold. Trade skipped due to insufficient conviction.

3m 39s35 tools
Claude Sonnet 4.5Balanced
Analysis Outcome
NO TRADE0% edge
BULL
62%
BEAR
62%

Bull and bear cases balanced — no clear edge

Bull/Bear CompetitionBALANCED
Bull 62%Δ 0%Bear 62%
Bull Case

ASML is testing resistance at all-time highs ( $1503) with rising RSI momentum (64.47) and price 3.2% above both SMA 20/50, signaling technical strength. The company just announced a groundbreaking 1, 000-watt EUV light source (up from 600W) that analysts project could deliver 50% chip output increases by 2030, reinforcing its monopoly position in critical semiconductor lithography. Q4 order intake of €13.2B (more than double estimates) and 2026 revenue guidance of €34-39B with 53% gross margins demonstrate explosive AI-driven demand for advanced chip manufacturing equipment. The stock has low volume at current prices (volume profile shows $1497 as a low-volume node) , suggesting minimal resistance to a breakout above $1503 into blue-sky territory.

Bear Case

ASML is testing critical resistance at $1, 503 (52-week high) after a parabolic 75% rally, currently trading in a low-volume rejection zone ( $1, 497 is the lowest volume node) which historically marks distribution areas where sellers emerge. The stock trades at 50x P/E and 24.6x P/B with a stretched PEG of 6.85, representing extreme valuation that prices in perfection while the 1, 700 job cuts (3.8% of workforce) signal internal execution risk during organizational restructuring. The bearish market regime (80% confidence, flight-to-safety into gold/treasuries, VIX deterioration) creates a hostile macro backdrop for high-beta semiconductor equipment names (beta 1.46) , and geopolitical export restrictions to China remain an unresolved overhang that could compress future order flow.

Analysis Notes

Thesis Competition CONTESTED: BULL case (62%) vs BEAR case (62%) - confidence delta (0%) below threshold. Trade skipped due to insufficient conviction.

3m 47s35 tools