BTC remains in a long-term bear trend from its $126K high (-44.7%), with bearish SMA crossover and resistance at $73,174. Market shows credit stress and flight to safety, while $2.3B in recent realized losses indicates capitulation. Upcoming economic events could exacerbate selling pressure.
BTC/USD is rallying into a well-defined overhead resistance zone (~ $73.2k) while the higher-timeframe structure remains damaged (still ~44.7% below the 52-week high) and the daily trend is sideways with bearish moving-average structure (SMA20 < SMA50) , suggesting the bounce can fade. Momentum is not confirming: MACD is deeply negative and flat, consistent with a bear-market rally rather than a durable trend reversal. Macro/regime inputs also lean defensive (SPY -1.77% over 5d, credit stress, yen flight-to-safety) and BTC is highly correlated to risk appetite—so a risk-off impulse, especially around the high-impact USD event on 2026-02-18, could drive a retrace back toward the ~ $60k support.
Bitcoin has crashed over 50% from its $126, 296 October 2024 peak and remains in a confirmed downtrend with SMA20 < SMA50 (bearish signal) . The Fear & Greed Index at "Extreme Fear" (5-9) indicates de
Bitcoin has successfully reclaimed its 20-day and 50-day SMAs ( $68, 982) , flipping a key dynamic resistance into support while RSI rises into bullish territory (57) . The recent drop to $60k triggered a massive $2.3B capitulation event—often a reliable bottom signal—accompanied by 'Extreme Fear' sentiment which historically precedes rallies. Institutional demand has returned with $145M in ETF inflows, validating the $60k floor and supporting a move toward overhead resistance.
BTC/USD is showing a strong technical recovery setup after a brutal capitulation event that saw $2.3B in realized losses—comparable to the 2022 Luna collapse. Price is now +16.4% above the $60, 001 su
Bull and bear cases balanced — no clear edge
BTC/USD is showing a strong technical recovery setup after a brutal capitulation event that saw $2.3B in realized losses—comparable to the 2022 Luna collapse. Price is now +16.4% above the $60, 001 support floor and holding above both the SMA 20/SMA 50 at $68, 982, with RSI at 57.81 (rising momentum) and recent +4.3% daily gains signaling exhaustion of selling pressure. The market has absorbed extreme fear (Fear & Greed Index at 5-9) , creating a classic contrarian buying opportunity where weak hands have capitulated and smart money accumulates. Bitcoin maintains 56.2% market dominance, and at $69, 836 is only -4.6% from resistance at $73, 174, offering a clean technical path to retest prior highs with a favorable 1.88: 1 reward-to-risk setup.
Bitcoin has crashed over 50% from its $126, 296 October 2024 peak and remains in a confirmed downtrend with SMA20 < SMA50 (bearish signal) . The Fear & Greed Index at "Extreme Fear" (5-9) indicates deep panic that typically precedes further selling, not bottoms. Macro regime shows BEARISH TREND with 3/5 bear signals including SPY -1.77% 5d, CREDIT_STRESS, FLIGHT_TO_SAFETY in Yen, and VIX COMPLACENT suggesting more volatility ahead. Massive ETF outflows and AI-driven capital rotation away from crypto continue, with 69, 000 BTC sold at a loss in 30 days. High-impact USD economic event on Feb 18 poses binary risk. Social sentiment remains "bearish to neutral" despite price bounce, indicating retail capitulation incomplete. Price at $69, 836 is only 4.6% below resistance at $73, 174 but 16.4% above critical support at $60, 001—asymmetric risk favors downside retest.
Thesis Competition CONTESTED: BULL case (72%) vs BEAR case (72%) - confidence delta (0%) below threshold. Trade skipped due to insufficient conviction.
Short BTC/USD into resistance with macro risk-off and weak momentum confirmation; look for a retrace toward ~$60k support while risking a breakout above the $73.2k area.
BTC/USD is rallying into a well-defined overhead resistance zone (~ $73.2k) while the higher-timeframe structure remains damaged (still ~44.7% below the 52-week high) and the daily trend is sideways with bearish moving-average structure (SMA20 < SMA50) , suggesting the bounce can fade. Momentum is not confirming: MACD is deeply negative and flat, consistent with a bear-market rally rather than a durable trend reversal. Macro/regime inputs also lean defensive (SPY -1.77% over 5d, credit stress, yen flight-to-safety) and BTC is highly correlated to risk appetite—so a risk-off impulse, especially around the high-impact USD event on 2026-02-18, could drive a retrace back toward the ~ $60k support.
BTC/USD is carving out a potential swing bottom after a sharp flush toward the ~ $60k support area, with news flow highlighting capitulation-like realized losses and “extreme fear” sentiment—conditions that often precede tradable rebounds. Technically, price (~ $69.8k) is back above the daily mid-band and above the ~SMA 20/50 area (~ $69.0k) with RSI >50 and rising, suggesting momentum is rebuilding as it presses into the ~ $73.2k resistance zone. While macro is mixed, VIX term structure in contango and breadth broadening lean toward stabilization/risk-on windows, and reported ETF inflows/regulated product activity imply institutional demand may be forming a floor into the next 1–3 weeks.
Thesis Competition: BEAR case won (64% vs 63%).
BTC remains in a long-term bear trend from its $126K high (-44.7%), with bearish SMA crossover and resistance at $73,174. Market shows credit stress and flight to safety, while $2.3B in recent realized losses indicates capitulation. Upcoming economic events could exacerbate selling pressure.
BTC remains in a long-term bear trend from its $126K high (-44.7%), with bearish SMA crossover and resistance at $73,174. Market shows credit stress and flight to safety, while $2.3B in recent realized losses indicates capitulation. Upcoming economic events could exacerbate selling pressure.
Bitcoin is showing technical recovery after capitulation at $60k, with price reclaiming key moving averages and RSI trending upward. Institutional accumulation is evident through $145M ETF inflows and record options activity, while VIX contango supports risk assets. The 4.6% proximity to technical resistance at $73,174 offers clear near-term upside.
Thesis Competition: BEAR case won (72% vs 70%).
Bitcoin has successfully reclaimed its 20-day and 50-day SMAs ( $68, 982) , flipping a key dynamic resistance into support while RSI rises into bullish territory (57) . The recent drop to $60k triggered a massive $2.3B capitulation event—often a reliable bottom signal—accompanied by 'Extreme Fear' sentiment which historically precedes rallies. Institutional demand has returned with $145M in ETF inflows, validating the $60k floor and supporting a move toward overhead resistance.
Bitcoin has successfully reclaimed its 20-day and 50-day SMAs ( $68, 982) , flipping a key dynamic resistance into support while RSI rises into bullish territory (57) . The recent drop to $60k triggered a massive $2.3B capitulation event—often a reliable bottom signal—accompanied by 'Extreme Fear' sentiment which historically precedes rallies. Institutional demand has returned with $145M in ETF inflows, validating the $60k floor and supporting a move toward overhead resistance.
Bitcoin is executing a fragile relief rally into a wall of resistance at $70,000 and the Upper Bollinger Band ($70,777), within the context of a brutal 44% drawdown from all-time highs. The broader macro regime is flashing 'Credit Stress' and 'Flight to Safety' signals, which historically correlates with liquidity withdrawals from risk assets like crypto. The 'Death Cross' (SMA20 < SMA50) remains active, and the recent $2.3B in realized losses suggests structural weakness rather than a clean bottom, making this a prime 'sell the rip' setup.
Thesis Competition: BULL case won (68% vs 65%).