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OPENLONGConditional3 models|
-13% to target
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Reanalyzed 2h ago—HOLD(3/3 models)conviction 62—54% base +8 (Hormuz supply shock depth) +5 (Defensive sector rotation) -7 (Be...Details →

MPC

NYSEReanalysis
Swing3 Models·Review Snapshot: Mar 16, 2026, 2:43 PM·Research Desk — Hormuz Energy Shock: Upstream Producers and Oil Services Remain the Structural Long
DeepSeek R1, Claude Sonnet 4.5 +1
Completed
HOLD0/3 EXIT
DSR1 HoldCS4.5 HoldG3P Hold
Trigger:Research Desk — Hormuz Energy Shock: Upstream Producers and Oil Services Remain the Structural Long
0 of 3 models voted EXIT· Conviction: 62

Run Summary

Research desk report triggered reanalysis on MPC. Verdict: HOLD (0/3 EXIT). Conviction: 62.

DeepSeek R1
Reanalysis Verdict
HOLD

54% base +8 (Hormuz supply shock depth) +5 (Defensive sector rotation) -7 (Bearish macro regime) -3 (RSI approaching overbought) -5 (Premortem: Hormuz ceasefire) = 52%

Pre-mortem: Iran and U.S. announce surprise ceasefire with verified tanker escorts resuming through Hormuz, causing Brent to crash 18% to $90/bbl. MPC gaps down through $218 stop on open, triggering exit at $210 (-8.8% loss).
—0 toolsCost: $$
Claude Sonnet 4.5
Reanalysis Verdict
HOLD

50% base +15 (Hormuz crisis driving refining margins to 4-year highs) +8 (Goldman Sachs upgrade to $239 target on strong Q4 results) +7 (Research desk energy theme directly aligned with MPC refining model) -7 (RSI 68.8 near resistance at $236 with bearish regime headwind) -5 (Ceasefire announcement collapses oil premium and crack spreads compress 40%+ in 3 days) = 68%

Pre-mortem: Iran-U.S. ceasefire is announced with confirmed resumption of Hormuz shipping within 48 hours, causing Brent crude to collapse from $110 to sub-$85 within 3 trading days. Refining crack spreads compress 40%+ as supply normalization expectations flood the market. MPC gaps down -8% on the news, blowing through the $218 stop on the open before any exit is possible.
—0 toolsCost: $$
Gemini 3 Pro
Reanalysis Verdict
HOLD

54% base +12 (Desk Thesis: Refiner Arb) +8 (Technical/Analyst Strength) -5 (Macro Headwind) -4 (Demand Destruction Risk) = 65%

Pre-mortem: Recession fears trigger rapid demand destruction for refined products, causing crack spreads to collapse even if crude remains bid, dragging MPC down with the broader equity sell-off.
—0 toolsCost: $$