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WIN+10.7%+2.0R|LONGLow Conviction|$230.40 → $255.0016d 24hView in Radar →
MPC

MPC

NYSEReanalysis
Completed
Swing3 Models · Review Snapshot: Mar 16, 2026, 2:43 PM
DeepSeek R1, Claude Sonnet 4.5 +1
HOLD CONSENSUS
0/3 EXIT votes — no EXIT supermajority
DSR1 HoldCS4.5 HoldG3P Hold
Trigger
Research Desk — Hormuz Energy Shock: Upstream Producers and Oil Services Remain the Structural Long
Conviction 62
Hold Case
Claude Sonnet 4.568%
Gemini 3 Pro65%

The 'Hormuz Energy Shock' thesis confirms a structural tailwind for MPC. As a major US refiner sourcing WTI-linked crude while global product prices track elevated Brent ($110+), MPC captures expanded crack spreads. The stock shows relative strength, holding above the $225 SMA support cluster despite the bearish broad-market regime. New highs are likely as the geopolitical premium persists.

DeepSeek R152%

Retain structural long exposure to energy shock while respecting $218 stop (6.9% risk). Target remains achievable given 10x ATR(14) of $7.88 suggests $255 target (+13.9%) aligns with volatility parameters.

Exit Case

No model argued for EXIT.

What Could Go Wrong If We HOLD?
  • →Iran-U.S. ceasefire is announced with confirmed resumption of Hormuz shipping within 48 hours, causing Brent crude to collapse from $110 to sub-$85 within 3 trading days. Refining crack spreads compress 40%+ as supply normalization expectations flood the market. MPC gaps down -8% on the news, blowing through the $218 stop on the open before any exit is possible.

Individual Model Review

DeepSeek R1
HOLD52% confidence
Analysis Outcome
HOLD
52% confidence

Retain structural long exposure to energy shock while respecting $218 stop (6.9% risk). Target remains achievable given 10x ATR(14) of $7.88 suggests $255 target (+13.9%) aligns with volatility parameters.

Hold/Exit CompetitionHold 52% vs Exit 30%Winner: HOLD
Hold 52%Δ 22%Exit 30%
Hold Case52%

Retain structural long exposure to energy shock while respecting $218 stop (6.9% risk). Target remains achievable given 10x ATR(14) of $7.88 suggests $255 target (+13.9%) aligns with volatility parameters.

▼ Click to expand
Exit Case30%

Could not build strong exit case

▼ Click to expand
DeepSeek-R1Cost: $$
Claude Sonnet 4.5
HOLD68% confidence
Analysis Outcome
HOLD
68% confidence

Hold case remains stronger on reanalysis.

Hold/Exit CompetitionHold 68% vs Exit 31%Winner: HOLD
Hold 68%Δ 37%Exit 31%
Hold Case68%
Exit Case31%
Claude-Sonnet-4.5Cost: $$
Gemini 3 Pro
HOLD65% confidence
Analysis Outcome
HOLD
65% confidence

The 'Hormuz Energy Shock' thesis confirms a structural tailwind for MPC. As a major US refiner sourcing WTI-linked crude while global product prices track elevated Brent ($110+), MPC captures expanded crack spreads. The stock shows relative strength, holding above the $225 SMA support cluster despite the bearish broad-market regime. New highs are likely as the geopolitical premium persists.

Hold/Exit CompetitionHold 65% vs Exit 62%Winner: HOLD
Hold 65%Δ 3%Exit 62%
Hold Case65%

The 'Hormuz Energy Shock' thesis confirms a structural tailwind for MPC. As a major US refiner sourcing WTI-linked crude while global product prices track elevated Brent ($110+), MPC captures expanded crack spreads. The stock shows relative strength, holding above the $225 SMA support cluster despite the bearish broad-market regime. New highs are likely as the geopolitical premium persists.

▼ Click to expand
Exit Case62%
Gemini-3-ProCost: $$

Run Summary

Research desk report triggered reanalysis on MPC. Verdict: HOLD (0/3 EXIT). Conviction: 62.